Analysis of past week:
The network was optimistic for the last week and saw some gains, which was accurate until we got the bitfinex and tether news. Now instead we had a very neutral week where not too much happened.
I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as
Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 15521.41$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 5285.14$ (down 0.6 %)
Network strategy: 5679.84$ (down 0.6 %)
Starting capital: 11497.40$
The fiat strategy is up since the documented time has been a bear market. The neural network has gotten some edge above holding bitcoin.
Forecast:
Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.
The network remains positive for this week, but has changed the long term outlook. It now expects a restest of the 5000$ levels before we can go up and reach 6000 or even higher. We already saw the first hints of this last week.
The network is positive on btc. For the coming week I am holding bitcoin over fiat.
This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!