I was penning this post earlier today - and when I looked again Bitcoin was on the run past $19k... so apologies but I ditched the last minute editing and beautifying features to get this out there - here it is... (Please note this is not an in depth trading analysis nor a recommendation to buy/sell bitcoin - rather it is an opinion piece on the collective psychology of the market.
It feels like the market is set and ready to go to $25k on Bitcoin...
Given that trading, investment and a bull (or bear) run is based on psychological triggers, levels and sentiment I've been observing my view of the current collective psychological environment surrounding bitcoin.
FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) are the unsophisticated cousins of a phenomena that all professional traders adhere to... levels. Ok they may package it as 'Technical Analysis' or 'Charts' but basically this graphs out psychological levels that the market is watching...
The charts map out these levels and breakouts above or below certain point are seen as 'Signals' because this is the point where the asset will begin a big climb or long fall. But what these levels actually are is a point where the collective psychological sentiment towards an investment is triggered... that the market works in such unison is amazing (but predicting the behaviour of the market in this way also makes it ripe for manipulation).
Yet once that bull runs, the market then nervously watches for when the tide swings back - people take profit and wait for the fear and pullback before new entry levels are set and the dance begins again.
Clearly for bitcoin breaking away from the $17k/18k levels will be a big psychological trigger for a move upwards however it feels like the market have absorbed the new levels and are ready to push to the important $25k mark.
Looking back at the long month of December...
$10k: reaching this level was instrumental in making the world sit up and take notice. This level was reached surprisingly quickly once BTC took off in the first half of 2017. The graphs speak for themselves and we all sat in wonder, excitement and anticipation: What next?
$15k: BTC then shot up through this level in record time (6 days). This sent a good signal to the market that $10k was not a flash in the pan.
$15k-$17k: BTC comfortably sat in this zone for 10 days while the market psychologically adjusted to the new level.
--Buying in the dips proved difficult as the traffic took it's toll on the network:
--Discussions in forums, mainstream media, water-coolers and blogs around the world debated everything and anything
what was the long-term use of bitcoin, would bitcoin be superseded by another coin (many coins threw their hat in the bag), Was bitcoin a fraud or the saviour of the world?
Opinions were a dime a dozen during December and the best thing was to make up your own mind and commit to it - either you were in or out!
Then there was the added complexity of the Bitcoin Futures introduction - what impact would this have on anything?!
But the most important part of these 6 days in December was that the market as a whole got more and more comfortable with that new number bandied about... $25k.
It feels normal now $25k doesn't it? It feels like destiny and most importantly it feels like perhaps the next level - $50k - is not such a pie in the sky idea after all...
$50K for a Bitcoin?! Right now this does seem crazy... but how long before this feels normal?
Given that trading is based on sentiment (Until we all figure out exactly what bitcoin is...) it certainly feels like psychologically we have all gotten used to and are now expecting a bitcoin to cost $25k in the near-term.
What do you think?