Ok. Now we are in a situation that I mentioned at previous post. This point will be a big turning point. If BTC price failed to rise up, we are going into a long dark age. Whatever, it seems to me that the price is likely to go higher. In this analysis, I focused to the volume changes and RSI trend.
Summary
[DATA : BTCUSD 30min, virtual RSI trend line(4 hour), virtual need supported line(reference EMA(400)), virtual EMA(400) line]
#1. In view of candle/4hour chart, I can draw a line for the trend that the RSI moving(blue line in the RSI section). RSI moving is always have a cycle, and I think we are near in the end of one cycle. If a cycle being ended, the new cycle more likely bring a contrary trend. While the switch in this cycle does not guarantee the price increase amount, but we can expect that there will be such a move.
#2. I can observe a small head&shoulder pattern in candle/30min chart. The change in volume in the head & shoulder pattern is an important point, and we can observe the prominent volume spikes in recent price pathway. In this perspective, we can expect that the 'right shoulder' will appear.
#3. With (#1) and (#2), I predict that price increases will happen soon. But, this price increase will not be high. The 'need supported line' we previously used as a support line will now work as a resistance line. Based on these analyzes above, I present two possible scenarios below.
#### S1. A Flat Moving
This scenario is my primary opinion. Given recent trends and buyers' buying trends, prices will can not breach the resistance line quickly. It may be a bit boring, but it will take a while to get the price going over the resistance line.
#### S2. Price Explosion
One thing to be sure that this scenario is going to work is that a sufficient amount of BTC has already prepared for the rise. It means that he (who wants to sell BTC at a high price) has finished collecting the BTCs. And in this case a powerful volume will appear and the price breach the resistance line very rapidly(massive volume support).
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