Apologies for delay in posting. Very busy morning for me with clients.
Sentiment is very fidgety, especially during a bear market. It's often similar to a hypochondriac who panics at every possibility. The fact of the matter is that Wave IV for Bitcoin is still in play. It was going happen whether BTC did hit $5,083; because it was only a matter of when and where the Wave III top was going to be placed. The price rise we saw the past week was quite euphoric and sentiment took a major bounce upwards and so I patterned the H&S for a possible run to $5,083.
During the past week, I had written my prominent answer: Would I buy into this rise? And my answer was a resounding and consistent NO! That in fact, I would be proft SELLING into the rise, even if price went to $5,083. I've also written that waves 2 and 4 are often best to stand aside because their pathways have 36 possibilities making 1/36 chance of being right or about 3%.
The Head & Shoulders Bottom pattern is not yet invalidated but if prices decline further to $4,104, it will be. Today's drop is quite steep and fast. If in fact, BTC has started wave C down, the speed of its decline today fits its character as wave Cs are often fastest and deepest in the retracement. Also, current price of $4,220 is much below the Left Shoulder bottom of $4,327.
So, the ABC major correction towards C of Wave IV is still in the cards. This was never taken off the table as it would only have been delayed if prices kept rising.
The last thing to do is panic. Remember, even if you hodl through this, Wave IV shall end and after that the massive Wave V rise will take BTC to never yet seen levels of >$5,000 to $7,000. As I've shown quite a few times, Cryptos have a tendendcy to extend the fifth waves and if that is the case with Wave V; prices could well exceed $7,000.
So, don't panic. Trim a little if you want to get dry powder ready to deploy at the bottom of Wave IV. Depending on how you ladder, one can even deploy 1% of dry powder at every 50 point decline from now to the bottom of Wave IV. There are many variations to laddering that can fit your personality and risk appetite.
Here is Andreas Antonopoulos' take on today's price dumping:
