It has been a while since i last posted, I've been out of the market for awhile, sold out at the top of bitcoins wave 5 between 4800-4900. So how far can we drop?
Support and resistance lines for short term trades possible swing locations. get in and get out quick
Scenario (1)
Purely using the head and shoulders pattern the absolute bottom looks to be close to 2600
Scenario (2) Best Scenario, this assumes
Assuming a perfect zigzag 3500 is the bottom.
Scenario (3) the most likely scenario
The fifth wave extension has occurred the correction will be fast as fk and we drop like a rock to 2400
Scenario (4) The market sentiment dictates price action and price action indicates the current sentiment, and that is fear. A shiton of it. In the state of panic the first wave appeared to have occured. Using it we will assume the estimate is strong enough such that 2.618 extension can be used for both waves 3 and 5. it is possible to use the 4.236 but thats fked
assuming we get a 38 percent rally of the third wave the market bottom will be about 2300
Scenario (5) If we have alot of strong believers the 1.618 extension is still viable And the market will bottom about 3300
Lets wait and see how the charts play out and look for structures indicating the completion of the correction. What should we look for?
double or tripple bottoms, reverse head and shoulders and ending diagonals.
Why is this only a correction and we shouldnt fear the fud? Well logically speaking the market believers are very bullish and will buy the dips. Also alot of the news seems like pure FUD without much backing such a drop. To me it feels like the price was correcting like it should be and to find reasons as to why the price is dropping people hunted for news to explain it, I knew about the china news in august -_- well before the FUD started spreading. This just goes to show the extremes in human psychology and how it dictates the market
What can we look out for and the upcoming fear? From the looks of things the market is in an extended wave 5, so im looking for 9 impulse waves. We currently have 6
If the count is correct and we do shoot up like crazy you HAVE TO SELL close to the top. Throughout history, no matter what people say, crypto is not different, after a wave five extension the wave will retrace. to a minimum. the extremes of wave 2 of the extension which is 760 dollars . Or in the case of a global wave 5 the bottom of wave 4 which is 172$ how can this happen you ask? it doesn't take as much money to move the market up as it does to move the market down. Market cap is bullshit and it doesn't reflect the money going in and out, it just represents the resilience of the market to buy and sell fluctuations. The market cap is just the price bought of one of the coins averaged over the exchanges multiplied by the total number of coins. A large sum of market price sells will drop the global market cap like a rock.
I did some maths. If each bitcoin is sold at a descending price of 0.001 cents which is very very conservative i think its closer to 0.01 it takes between 1 and 10bln USD to drop the btc price from 5000 to 2000. That is why the market tends to correct faster than it rises, fear and greed drive the prices and when fear abounds it takes a lot less money to drop the market than it does to raise it
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