Capitulation is a good thing. let me say it at the very beginning, and here is my reasons:
nobody can move against the market's momentum. so when a solid trend like nowadays' figures, the potential energy in the trend move should release totally, so a trend reversal gets possibility to start.
it's for both cases: bulls or bears. they both need to fully release their potential energy.
So, the support levels are just playing the role of testing the strength of that momentum.
current supports
we have tested the latest support level, which was a strong one also, recently: 3150 USD
though it hasn't managed to break that level yet, I believe the momentum of the bearish trend is strong enough to retest and break it.
Then we will have the mental support level of 3000 USD or 4000 CAD, if you trade on CAD, like me.
for those who may wonder how these equals should be treated, I personally believe every market has its own mentality, so the CAD market tends to its own users. but if I am in a FOMO, I may consider the exchange equal to the USD level, which in this case is roughly 4015 CAD.
is that the bottom line?
Now we come to capitulation issue!
no, it is not the bottom line I think. the bottom line is when real capitulation happen. it means who have bought bitcoin in high rates of 2018 early months, those who believed they will hold their coins forever, lose their trust and belief in bitcoin and get frustrated.
as they start the sell off, the momentum will change smoothly from a bear market in to a bull market. is this certain? no! it's just PROBABILITY! like always, markets are about probability not certainty.
with probability comes risk, measurable risk. and that's when a money management skill and expertise can help any trader.
I will write my opinion on next moves of bitcoin as it moves on, but I have to repeat: these are not financial advice, but just my thoughts, made loud to hear back from my network and learn from you.
good luck 👍