Hello, this is my first post here. I don't know if anyone would have seen it but I would have post it up anyway:)
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Initially we have several scenarios and a lot of questions.
Before we talk about the scenarios , on the chart clearly shows to us the price movement in the shape of a wave cycle ended and large corrected and began another cycle from the end of the previous cycle . It will be the subject of our discussion.
We are now in wave 3 of the intermediate cycle, (a cycle that extends for several months ) . We have wave 1 and 2 as shown on the chart and from here wave 3 started.
The first scenario.
Wave 3 of the intermediate type did not end
Which happened is just a natural correction and small compared with the rise started from 152 $ and made new top for more than 3 years and the price will rise and will make a new high above the 20000$.
This scenario can be logical. Because the current correction ended at 5800, the level of Fibo 0.61 of Wave No. 3 only (152 - 19666). Its logical that the price is heading towards new top from this level. Something that is often repeated.
But there is something that doesn't support this scenario is that the wave is very large in price and time and we can count more than 5 waves within this wave.
which puts us in a more complex scenario is that this wave is a extends type with the knowledge that the
( extension may be 4 waves in addition to the five basic or 4 others and the total number of 13) , which happens in the financial markets and usually the extension in the third wave in the forex market or the fifth wave of the stock market. But this phenomenon of extension is unusual in the market and very complex .
The second scenario.
Wave # 3 is over and wave # 4 is over.
As the price completed 5 waves , rising at 19666 then correct wave A at 11159$ and up to end the wave B at 17234$ then drops again and the wave C at 5900$.
This scenario is not logical for me, for several factors , it is the time factor, correction time is too short for the wave of the intermediate type lasted 3 years, only 77 days it's a little funny !! .
The second reason is that with a Fibonacci retracement of wave 3 we find that wave A fell at 11159$, the level of Fibonacci 0.38, then climbed to 17234$ again and dropped at C 5900$ which is the level of 0.61 as mentioned earlier.
This correction is small and doesn't fit for a huge wave.
From my observation in the Crypto market, the wave A usually ends at 0.61 and the C wave ends at 0.78, which is a strong call that the correction is over. That is not what happened here .
I don't believe in this scenario.
The third scenario .
Wave # 3 is over and Wave # 4 has not ended.
As I mentioned earlier, I said that wave A ends at 0.61 Fibi of the wave total length and wave C ends at 0.78.
we are actually finished wave A and we are on our way to wave B which will end at 0.38 Fibo at 12211$ or 0.23 Fibo at 15060$. And we will drop again to 0.78 at 4300$ and the correction ends.
This scenario is probably the strongest and the reasons are that the correction if compared to the wave size would be very appropriate.
The other reason is that we will have a 4 wave correction period of about 4-6 months. If compared with corrective wave 2, it will be smaller, but here the Alternation in the rules of Elliott waves.( If the second wave is a complex correction (400 days), the fourth wave is a simple correction (90 - 180 days)). This supports the third scenario.
This scenario also supports that the third wave may be an extended wave as mentioned above and now we are in wave 4 (internal wave B)
Confirmations.
The first scenario makes sure that the price break the top 20k$ without made a new bottom. This is very unlikely for me.
The second scenario It is difficult to speak of confirmation here because the price if breaking the summit will put us in two complex possibilities, is the fifth wave really started or are we still in the third and we have a mistake in the internal count of this large wave extended. This is also unlikely for me.
The third scenario Confirmation is the rise of the price to reach the areas of 12 - 15k$ and down to the areas of 4000 and rise again. .
i believe in this scenario .
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Notes .
- The first and second wave age, which rose from $ 2.22 to $ 1163 and fell again to $ 152, is 1190 days, or 3.26 years, which was a huge rise of about 52,000%.
- Corrective wave number 2 fell from $ 1163 to $ 152, a loss of 86% and continued to fall 413 days for about 1.13 years.
- Another important note that many may not be aware of is that the price as illustrated by the chart
- The first historic top was 1163 on 11/2013 and reached this price almost again on 3/2017 1190 days which means we are talking about 3.2 years.
- This should be known to everyone that large waves may take a major correction and take a great time. So I say to everyone and to myself that whoever comes here to earn money quickly, let him review his decisions.
- This also makes the price rise for $ 20,000 a natural thing. We are talking about a search for a new momentum that has continued for 3 years.
- The third wave which caused me big annoyance. - lasted 1119 days more than 3 years to this moment.
- Number 3 years repeated 3 times here I do not know if this was a meaning but something strange and remind him anyway :)
Finally:
This personal effort stems from my passion for analysis.
Price analysis of a currency older than 6 years is complex .
of course think that I lack a lot of experience but that does not mean that I do not give my opinion .
There may be some kind of discussion and exchange of views.
We may get a better result or idea. I welcome all opinions, suggestions and assistance.
I wish you a good trade .