As you guys should know, bitcoin is going to have its UAHF (User Activated Hard Fork) on Aug 1st. This means that as long as you own the private keys for bitcoin you should also receive the same amount of Bitcoin Cash (BCC). I am expecting the majority of people who receive BCC will try to instant dump it as soon as they can as the futures traded on ViaBTC has BCC around 400-500 dollar range.
I am not too sure if the BCC value will be subtracted from the BTC value or if it will just be "free money" for BCC added to the current BTC value. (Please Chime in if you have some good thoughts on this) Either scenario I do think people will sell their BCC for the "free money" or just sell it and get more BTC to try to increase their BTC stack/value. The frenzy of people dumping might create panic selling for those that weren't necessarily planning on selling their BCC, but due to the fast price drop and how new and uncomfortable people are with this new stuff, they are going dump as well.
So because of this opinion, I too will try to beat the herd as best I can and sell my bitcoin cash. If BCC pulls a ETC kinda comeback, I think we will have some consolidation/ downtrend and be able to see it coming.
Here comes my crazier scenarios! If bitcoin does fall down to compensate for the bitcoin cash value so they can maintain a parity market cap, I am pretty sure the other alt coins will not move their btc ratios up to create a us dollar parity of their current alt coin value. This is due to my personal experience and how the alts always seem to lag in increasing its btc ratio or even further underperform bitcoin by going even lower as bitcoin is having its own issue even though it has nothing to do with alts. I am also pretty confident a lot of people will agree with this too since they expect the alts to go up as bitcoin is going down, but only see the alts go down as well and become a big blood bath.
This makes me think that people might sell their alts now so they can have their BTC ready to receive BCC and then sell their BCC to receive more BTC to rebuy more of the alts they sold since they probably do not expect the alts to go up when this happens.
This leads me to my crazy scenario. If people sell their alts to receive more bitcoin cash to dump and ultimately buy back more alts, we can expect possible dumps in some alt names. Given that Poloniex is not supporting bitcoin cash, people will pull their BTC off the exchanges and will lead to less bids on the order books for alts. The offers are probably going to stay similar in size since they are not affected. So with thinner bids due to withdrawn btc and thick offers + maybe even selling of alts to receive the Bitcoin cash. We might experience FLASH CRASHES in the margin traded alts. I understand that this is not likely, but I will sacrifice a few btc on Poloniex and bid low on margin traded alts(-50% to -70%) that I personally love and hope for the chance of the lotto flash crash pick up. I got lucky and caught some of that GDAX ether flash crash a month ago =).
This has never happened before and different from the ETC/ETH split obviously, but since every alt is traded in BTC, we might see huge arbitrage scenarios as well as way thinner order books. We should be prepared to take advantage of this volatility.
This is very controversial and completely hypothetical. Please share your inputs/thoughts.
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