Hi everyone.
Two year bear market is probable at this point, especially if the strong 6k support breaks. Even if it takes 2 years we are already 1/4th of the way. We might go down a lot , like 4k or 2k. But i think most of the people involved already know this is going up again long term.
What we need in order to recover, is make bitcoin fast and cheap once again. We need to be able to sent 10 bucks in a few minutes maximum and spent nothing for fees. Bitcoin devs are working for this and i've already seen breakthrough, but they still need time.
So I'm basically talking really long term on this post. What i see comes mainly from the daily and weekly charts. We have the same bear market that bitcoin had 3 times before, losing 80% from top as of now, ready to lose 90% once again. Last time it took one and a half year to secure the bottom. It was safe to buy at around 200$. Chart has almost no deviations from 2014. My guess is we are close to next big dip that will bring us closer to buying range. We need months before we know though. What i believe is that next bull run will be the definite one, that will actually make bitcoin a world currency. Merchant adoption will be faster than anything we ever encountered and the 5th revolution will be able to begin.
So I actually give 3 years for 100K Bitcoin.
In 2020 is the next halvening. Last one was in 2016 and market started reacting from 2015. Then there were the good news of Japan/Korea accepting crypto etc. There will be good news again. This is certain. And bitcoin will be the major player once again.
So it's 6.5k now, perhaps we dive to 4k-2k (there is no probability going lower) and somewhere there i'm buying and hodling for years. Personally i don't think now is time to either buy or sell. If you bought just hold it. If you sold, wait for it. Doesn't really matter as you will actually find a spot to enter and then you can hodl and wait for 2 years.
So if all goes as planned in July 2021, i will post an "I told you so" reply on this post.
(we might even reach 200k$/BTC who knows).
Remember the parabolic prediction chart from 2014. (The guy that created it made me buy in this September. Already thanked him for that).
Don't get me wrong. I still hope for 17k by the end of this year and speed things up.
*I posted the same article on reddit by the way, under the name moufas1.