''''''In my previous analysis i said the following: The 4000ish level can be tested as well, rather see it stay above the 4050/4100, showing some inpatient buyers wanting to get in (who do not want to wait for the 4000 or lower levels). We have resistance levels around 4500 and 4700 now. So far this has played out and we are still inside this range as well. However we have not made that high 'volume V shape low, which would indicate this might be over.
The past few hours we have made a small breakout, as we can see on the left but there is no volume at all. This usually makes the price drop again. The low volume shows their is no support for this move up, because it makes the support zones very fragile because of this. There is room up until the 4750 even but i highly doubt if we will get above that level if the volume stays like this. I think we might not even get above the 4650ish with this low volume . If we start to see many hours of sideways movement between the 4400 and 4600 zone and make small bounces up from that trend line as i illustrated on the left, i think we will make a big dump again. This is just a scenario i plan ahead, so if we see something like this happen i will probably trade it. What i hope to see if we make another dump is to see a good high volume V shape low, meaning dropping 500/800 points and bouncing up almost the same amount. So not the bounce we had yesterday, because that one was too slow and without any conviction or volume .
On the right we can see another scenario' which is a big bear flag . I see this happening if we do move higher towards the 4800 but with slow low volume movement. If we see that happening i will probably short it around those levels after seeing some rejection happening. In this scenario i want to see a similar thing as i mentioned above, also seeing a big panic dump. We should not see the target of this bear flag getting reached though, because that would mean we will drop to the low 3K' levels. I don't think things will go that fast, because that would need extreme panic to happen. What the bulls want to see, is a break of the flag make a big drop below it and then seeing buyers stepping in and pushing the price up to create a short squeeze. Until we see this moment happen, where bears really start to burn their hands, we will remain in these bearish zones.
Open Interest on Mex' is finally increasing a bit again, showing interest in the market is very slowly increasing again, but it's still a low number. We should not think' about the 700/800 mil numbers, because the price is much lower, but 400/500 mil would be good. Open longs on Bitfinex are increasing a bit and the shorts as well. So there is no sign of money leaving this market, which is good since Tether' caused a lot of uncertainty the past 2 months.
For more information, please read my 'previous analysis to know my thoughts and view of the current market conditions. '
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