Hey Steemit Crypto crew,
If you've been following me for the last couple of months (Since January 2018), I have been talking about this crypto market, in particular Bitcoin, falling in to a bear market. The hype got way too hot in December and into January and it just felt like the market had no where left to go.
I'm not saying I was smart enough to do a lot about it. I fell into the trap (I wanted to believe) that I thought this market would go into an S-curve and keep going. Unfortunately, things haven't worked out liked that, and we've seen a solid 60% drop off the total market capitalisation ($830bn down to $330bn currently) and I think we could still halve from where we are now, somewhere around $170bn to $200bn (this lines up with the highs before the market went really silly).
This might take another several months to come to fruition and in between now and then, we'll definitely see some small rallies, like what we've seen over the last 24 hours where Bitcoin has gone from $7200 to $8700 (a 20% gain).
I'm anticipating a similar (but not exact) bear market like we saw in 2013-2015, however the market is still moving quicker than we saw back then so it's still possible (but not likely imo) that we'll see another crazy run to new highs before we see the real long term bear market which could last several years into the mid-2020's. I'm choosing this date, the mid-2020's, as other cycle analysis work lines up with this period for the world economies to be coming to a peak. So, my estimate we'll see the world economies peak at that point and the smart, anti-system money will start to buy up crypto on the impending world economic crash. It's how I'm playing the market and my investments but I definitely don't kid myself and think many others will play it like this. I'll continue to touch on this in future posts.
So, back to Bitcoin and the below charts are a graphical representation to my above comments regarding the 2013-2015 bear market, which I have including my marking up of the falls and rallies in percentage terms (yellow writing), the trend lines showing the price action slowing down on the bear market (pink lines) before it turned around and took off for the mega bull market we saw from 2015 to late-2017. The big, solid blue arrows indicate where the 50, 100, 200 Moving Averages on the 3-Day chart crossed and almost directly on those points, we saw market action increase in volatility, volume and price ranges (first cross), high lows and continuing consolidation (second and third cross) and then we took off from May-2016 without barely even another look back at the old highs from the low of $162.