Are you ready to have your mind blown?
Did you know that the Bitcoin tops and bottoms seem to fluctuate around halving dates in an almost equal ratio?
We all know that bitcoin starts turning bullish approximately 1 year prior to its halving date and then remains bullish until roughly 1 year post halving date.
Those are not exact numbers, but instead general time frames based upon the previous 2 halving events.
However, what if I told you it's a lot more specific and dialed in than even that generalization would indicate?!
According to data compiled by CryptoKea, the tops and bottoms happen in almost the exact same ratio on either side of the halving date!
Take a look...
(Source:
)https://twitter.com/CryptoKea/status/1230925037026381826
- CryptoKea
As you can see, it took 51% of the time bitcoin bottomed until it peaked to reach the halving date. And it took 49% of the time from bottom to top until the halving date.
A little confusing I know, but hopefully that chart can visualize things a bit for you.
Some specifics on the data...
It took 742 days from the time bitcoin bottomed until the time it reached its top during the first halving cycle. The halving was 376 days from the bottom and 366 days from the top.
A 51/49% ratio of the entire halving market cycle.
Makes sense right?
During the second halving cycle, it took 1067 days from the time bitcoin bottomed until the time it reached its peak. The halving was 542 days from the bottom and 525 days from the top.
Which was also a 51/49% ratio of the entire halving market cycle.
Hmm... Coincidence?
Perhaps, or perhaps not...
What does all this mean?
As we all know, history doesn't always repeat exactly, but it often rhymes.
If this pattern were to play out again this time around, and since we already have the date bitcoin bottomed and the halving date, we can speculate on a date that bitcoin would reach its highs during this next market cycle...
Looking back, we can see that bitcoin bottomed roughly 509 days from the next projected halving.
If that is also 51% of the projected market cycle, we could expect to see bitcoin peak in September of 2021!
Which would represent the other 49% of the market cycle from the projected halving date.
Overall, still a bit confusing I know.
But the main takeaway from all of this is really pretty simple...
If bitcoin continues to behave the way it has in the past, we might expect to see the peak of this next cycle happen in September of next year.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc