BTC / USD Technical Analysis - The Big Picture
Sometimes when I get lost in the detail, I like to zoom out and remind myself of the BIG picture rather than the day to day details. Psychologically, it helps to take breaks from the charts and then remind yourself of the big picture.
With that in mind, I would like to direct your attention to the Daily chart. Take a note of the Feb 6th & Apr 1st lows. And now look at the potential low approaching in the next few days.
We are seeing higher lows. An indication of a bullish trend.
Also, notice the RSI on those dates and how the RSI is trending upward, creating Bullish Divergence.
In addition, notice how the MACD is in a giant symmetrical triangle that is tightening toward the apex. As this energy is coiled toward the apex, it will break out the triangle violently in one direction or another.
The Weekly Chart
Now zooming out on the weekly chart and drawing a fibonacci chart starting from $0 to Bitcoin's all time high, we can see that we are in the "Golden Pocket" right now. That's between the 0.618 and 0.65 fib retracement.
This is the golden ratio, the magic number that's in everything from the design of the human body, to flower pedals, a nautilus shell and in markets. That's why we use fibonacci tools.
I believe we are watching a key pivotal point coming up at the end of this month and setting us up for a very good summer.
Fundamentals
Fundamentally, there is institutional money coming into the cryptosphere, including hedge funds and major stock exchanges, ie. NYSE and NASDEQ. That will funnel trillions of Dollars into the crypto market starting this summer.
However, for the last 6 months I believe whales and these institutional players have been using every tool available to them to bring the price of BTC low as possible so they can get all their buddies in at bargain prices.
They have alot of experience doing this and they have the mainstream media as their mouthpiece.
By the way, the media's job is not to give you good advice, it's to do the opposite, so their buddies on Wall Street make all the money off the average investor. So take the news with a grain of salt. Don't do what they say, do what they do.
Human Psychology Drives the Market
Speaking of Wall Street, take a look at this picture and think about the sentiment of the market right now. It's a picture of a market cycle and human emotions during that cycle. Humans create the cycle depending on their emotions.
Do you think we are in the anger phase? or Depression stage?
I think we are in the depression stage. I read all the comments in the cryptosphere and I see depression and pessimists everywhere. As a contrarian, that tells me we are near the end of the cycle and near the beginning of a new bull market.
But the truth is my emotions are telling me that BTC will never enter a bull market again but as a contrarian and trader I know that I must control my emotions in order to make good decisions.
Comment below your true feelings about the market right now.
Note: If I'm long term investing in a coin I will hold a portion (10 - 25%), preferably in secure storage without trading them.
Disclaimer: This is my personal technical analysis. You should not trade cryptocurrencies without taking full responsibility for your own decisions. I will NOT be responsible for any loses you may have incurred based on my TA. Responsible money allocation is key to not gambling all your investments on one or a few trades. I am now a professional trader but am still learning the hard knocks and realities of swing trading full time. I take responsibility from my own decisions, so should you.