The end of 2017 hailed a meteoric rise of Bitcoin and all the cryptocurrencies that are somewhat "pegged" to it's value. But 2018 ushered in a downfall from the heavenly position it managed to reach high up to.
First first quarter of 2018 put pressure on Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies, with a 50% drop since the beginning of the year. Other coins saw a 90% drop at the same time from their all-time high positions in the charts.
The pressure has been speculated to be coming from the Mt. Gox sell off, but there were also other factors attributed to the decline. Tax measures and bans on cryptos or their ICOs where being talked about as regulation seemed to be creeping in. Fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) gripped the minds of many would-be investors who dropped coins in an attempt to get a profit or cut their losses rather than hold onto the crypto they had.
But the fear of outright bans are likely going to be mitigated by regulations and more government investment into blockchain technology. Venezuela and Cambodia started up nationalized cryptocurrencies in March 2018. Cryptocurrencies are being legitimized, but that means pressure for taxes and regulations will likely ensue in 2018.
But with the increased use in the mainstream, and more regulation, more people will feel cryptos are a safer investment to get into,meaning more people will be attracted to get into the crypto-sphere. Blockchains are getting more cost-effective with better transactions speeds and reduced fees, making complaints go down for those getting in and using cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin itself is set to see some improvements that will make it more pleasant to use to transfer from wallet to wallet.
Fiat currencies around the world are getting a bad rap by comparison, as many national currencies are flopping. Venezuela created a cryptocurrency as an attempt to get out of it's currency crisis. The USA itself has a huge debt looming over it's books. The global economy has seen many bubbles pop, with the most recent in 2008. And it's not over, as the huge trillions of dollars bubble of the gambling derivatives market has not been dealt with.
From April to June 2016, Bitcoin rose over 80% to near $800 in value. Another bull run happened the next year from April to June 2017 with a 170% increase to the then all-time high of $3000/BTC. This year could be the same, says Naeem Aslam, contributing writer for forbes.com. It;s no guarantee, but it could happen. But Aslam doesn't think the bear market is over yet, noting the "death cross" 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average.
Supply is greater than demand, and until this changes, the bear run will continue. Aslam sees a drop down to $4000 for support and a possible big bounce up as people rush in to buy low, which -- in his eyes -- could sky-rocket Bitcoin to $35,000 by late Q3 or the end of 2018.
The beginning of April is showing a bump in the value of Bitcoin. It may be headed on up again for another bull run, but this might also be a temporary pop in the continued fizzle downwards to a steady floor of support for a little longer.
Blockchains and cryptocurrencies are relatively new in the world. We are on the cusp of the downturn of FUD disillusionment before the upturn, after the great-fall of the first-time hype and inflated expectations. The trustless nature of blockchain technology will likely change many aspects of our lives and how we govern ourselves. It's an exciting time. Will 2018 be "the" year for Bitcoin? We shall see...
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