First, and most importantly, this post resides in the area of speculation and one might rightly call this a "conspiracy theory." I don't necessarily ascribe to it. I am merely looking for plausible explanations for the actions of various market actors, and those controlling the hash power of the Bitcoin network. In other words, this could all be BS - but, at least it's interesting BS.
I rate this theory as plausible, nothing more, and I mean that literally. Plausibility is a low bar.
Play me to get in the mood for the rest of this post!
I consider this a warning post, bringing to light potential (albeit probably unlikely) risks. Unequivocally, I am not hoping for this event to occur. It would be a huge blow to the cryptocurrency industry, potentially not unlike Mt Gox. Bitcoin's fundamentals (fees, transaction times) already look poor; this is the last thing the sector needs. Get your coins out of exchanges!
Also, to dispense with the somewhat off-topic in advance, if you have bought Bitcoin Cash based on my recent posts and enjoyed the 32% pump over the last 24 hours, consider taking some profits, particularly into fiat. Nobody has ever gone broke taking profits, and indeed the (likely) lack of an event on Nov 26th in Bitcoin could prove to be a negative event itself for Bitcoin Cash.
If you are currently in fiat, I suggest staying there but being ready to buy before the 27th. If you need a crypto "safe-haven", consider any stable coin like Ethereum or Litecoin, but they may do little good. Bitcoin Cash could be a great, or terrible, place to be - but it has already pumped 32% since my recommendation yesterday... (in other words, that means I like it less than I did yesterday...by about 32%.)
Finally, a note from my personal experience.
Markets are very thin around holidays. It's a dangerous time to trade, as liquidity is low and that means events have larger than normal impacts. Given how irrational the market can be in the short-term, this can have severe repercussions for your bottom line, as I found out when trading gold futures one fateful Thanksgiving when Dubai decided to default. One might think such a negative fiscal event would be gold positive, but it merely provided an excellent opportunity for the usual suspects at the COMEX to crush precious metals on thin volume. I was stopped out of otherwise fine trades and the manufactured volatility cost me plenty.
I mention this simply to highlight that I am no stranger to observing the markets around US holidays, having done so for for decades. Do not underestimate the potential for surprising volatility and irrationality at these times.
OK, that's enough jibber-jabber. Let's get on with the wacky theory.
Honestly, after attempting to distill this excellent summary by u/Midbell, I simply could't make it much more concise. Here is the potential problem, in their words:
I can confirm personally most of this post's understanding of the mechanics involved. The understanding of the difficulty adjustments and timeframes appears to be correct. The poster correctly identifies that the EDA (emergency difficulty adjustment) that Bitcoin Cash had is no longer in effect, so it will not be there to "put the brakes" on such an effect.
There is some...corroborating "evidence" (uncited hearsay) that lends credence to this post. This post was spotted by another Reddit user on Pastebin:
This is not the first time such a plan has been highlighted. In fact, this "plan" was outed before Bitcoin Cash even existed, allegedly, by a supporter of Bitcoin Core (based on their classification of "big blockers" [aka "Satoshi Whitepaper Followers"] as "the enemy").
Again, I will simply let this image speak for itself, and speculation can continue in the comments section below. Note lines 17-23, in particular.
The link at the bottom of the previous pastebin goes to the least "credible" looking of all the sources, in my opinion:
If anyone has any further information on this topic, please let us know in the comments.
PS - DO NOT LEAVE YOUR COINS ON EXCHANGES. This is never a good idea but seems particularly pertinent RIGHT NOW (not next week, NOW.)
If you have any additions or errata for this post, please let me know! I will see that they are voted to the top of the comments, and will make the appropriate edits (if possible).
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Sources: Cointelegraph, Reddit (r/btc, r/bitcoin), Pastebin, Imgur, Google
Copyright: Weird Al Yankovic, Cointelegraph