I find that a lot of people compare Bitcoin to stocks and treat them as such. I do not share that opinion. Bitcoin has no market capitalization (equity value of a business). Bitcoin isn’t a business and has no profits.
I believe it is a digital tower of Babel, it has no language barriers. A global digital currency based on a complete new technology. It is my belief that Blockchain will change the future and many industries will have to adapt in the next few years (banks, insurance companies, pension funds, Healthcare etc.).
Please note that this is my personal opinion and not financial advice.
My plan and approach
I wanted to do a rough calculation how many people of the world population could theoretically create wallets and buy Bitcoin in the future. This will be especially interesting to know when the lightning network is ready. The Lightning Network is a proposed solution to the bitcoin scalability problem. It would be a game changer but keep in mind it is also pretty complicated.
I wanted to use the current number of wallets used by the average person.
By using the source: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html (numbers used from December 5)
And find out how many people would be able to create wallets and buy Bitcoin in the future.
For this I used the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, 2017, counting only people with $10.000,- or more, which is 29,9% of the world population as shown below.
Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, 2017 - https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/articles/news-and-expertise/global-wealth-report-2017-201711.html
Only counting people between the ages 15-64 (65% of the world population)
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS
I'm also not counting the China population due to the ban. Even though some of the biggest Bitcoin mines are in China.
The numbers
To make a fair calculation, I counted 1 wallet as 1 person.
Which is not entirely accurate since some people have more than 1 wallet but I did not want to "over calculate".
Total wallets at 5 December: 10.048.474
USD stock 1 BTC at 5 December: $ 10.000 (was about 11k but again I didn't want to overdo it)
Total world population: 7.600.000.000
China population : 1.400.000.000
People worldwide between ages 15-64: 65%
People worldwide with more then $10.0000,- to spend : 29,9%
I used the following calculation.
Total world population - China * percentages people between ages 15-64 * people that can afford BTC
The rundown
Total world population: 7.600.000.000
Minus China: - 1.400.000.000
Total left: 6.200.000.000
Times the % of People between ages 15-64: 65%
Total left: 4.030.000.000
Times the % People that can afford BTC: 29,9%
Total left: 1.204.970.000
Which leaves us with a total of 1.204.970.000 future wallets.
Then I wanted to calculate what the current wallet percentage is vs. the future wallets.
Total future wallets : 1.204.970.000 = 100%
People that have wallets : 10.048.474 = 0,00833919 % of future wallets
And finally the calculation how much 1 BTC would be if the total future wallets would be used
(USD Price at 5 December divided by the current wallets of 5 December) times the total future wallets.
($10.000 / 10.048.474) * 1.204.970.000 = $1.199.157,21 per 1 BTC
Conclusion
$1.199.157,21 seems like a crazy amount, but keep in mind the BTC maximum supply is set on 21 million.
And if 1 billion people worldwide do get wallets to buy Bitcoin in the next 10 years would it be possible?
The final question is; how many people will make wallets buy BTC in the future and when.
All I know is that I'm in it for the long run.
I would love to know your ideas, opinions, your estimates.