We have seen a huge market rally in these days. Absolutley incredible and outstanding.
Bitcoin has doubled its value in less than 30 days, and many alts have had huge pumps (including IOTA, Ripple, Litecoin, Ethereum, and many others).
Total market cap of all crypto is growing at the fastest % rate of the last months, since june 2017.
On the other hand, Bitcoin network is frozen and unusable as money due to large use and higher prices (that are bringing higher fees - more details here https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@marculisse/in-bitcoin-rally-making-bitcoin-unusable-the-problems-of-speculative-market).
Market cap on the moon, altcoin pump, bitcoin frozen, great enthusiasm of all investors.
Looks familiar? The answer is yes.
This is exactly the pattern seen in june 2017.
What happened in june 2017? Market was riding a crazy bitcoin price rally, that sent bitcoin very very near to $3000.
After of this, two things happened: first, bitcoin network was frozen and users were looking for alternatives. A lot of liquidity came out to altcoins (particullary ethereum). Bitcoin market dominance fell under 40% and investors pumped altcoins to incredibles all time hight, while bitcoin price stabilized having a very slow decrease.
(you can find all data about market dominance here https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage)
Then, what happened? Bitcoin network was frozen, so investors pumped altcoin. Then, bitcoin started to fall. Network was unusable, so bitcoin intrinsic value was really damaged. It fell by 2700 to about 1800$. Altcoin fell of 40-50%, coming back from the great pump, because of panic moment.
What is happening now? Bitcoin is slowly decreasing in last days. Bitcoin market dominance is decreasing and altcoins are pumping or stabilizing (or having a small % price decrease). Bitcoin network is frozen with record transation fees.. Exactly the picture of june 2017.
Now, there is a growing nervousness about bitcoin network situation while users pass to other cryptos (see for example here https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@marculisse/5hdqmu-litecoin-price-surges-to-moon-as-bitcoin-network-is-tecnically-broken). Expect another bitcoin's market dominance decrease, maybe under 50%
All this is very dangerous. a - 30-40% decrease of all the market, with bitcoin coming back under $10000, is not impossible.
Consider also that bitcoin passed the $4000 level because segwith upgrade was trusted to solve bitcoin network congestion. Situation now has only worsened with higher fees. All that rise over $4000 was basically mindless by a fundamental point of view. Why to not came back?
Basical differences from june are two: all crypto market before june 2017 came out from a bigger pump than in the end of 2017.. And, in the end of 2017, bitcoin is perceived more like a speculative asset than in june. So, frozen network is maybe less important in investors psicology.
Anyway, pay attention to this caotic period. Don't act emotionally. Don't use leverage over 1:3, because a 30% market price spike is really possible. It is possible everyday.. But particullary in these days. All these are hipothesis. But I want to share some ideas that I consider not impossible.
Hope for the best, but get ready for the worst. Good luck guys.. And have a nice day!