After ignoring the rise of Bitcoin for years the time has come that denial isn’t possible anymore and the financial elites that brought our world into poverty and war for decennia finally wake up to the fact that something indestructible is coming their way to disrupt them through fair competition while every attempt to compete with their fraudulent system in the past is always destroyed by (the treat of) violent of cartel protecting governments who have a monopoly on violence.
When you set up a financial system to include the 4 billion unbanked and take them out of poverty you will be arrested for ‘unlicensed banking’ or ‘money laundering’, centralised e-currencies are always shut down in the past and people involved locked up and countries that didn’t want to use the USD for international trade are always attacked and left behind with a long lasting mess causing millions of people to suffer. Bitcoin is the first competition for this sick system in more than hundred years that can’t be shut down or successfully attacked. This is HUGE and the elites start to realise it.
The biggest and most peaceful revolution ever
Disrupting the financial system that is backed by the government monopoly on violence by bringing in competition that is immune to violence is genius. The power over the money supply created a situation that violence could be funded without taxing people and thus without asking their permission to spend their money on this purpose and they robbed savers and crippled the already poor countries in the process.
When there is competition on money creation people will naturally choose the best type of money and bad behaviour like unlimited printing to fund war, manipulation of interest rates, extremely high fees for remittances and exclusion of billions from the financial system will be directly punished because users will flow out of their system and moving to the competing one.
This will immediately decrease the value of the bad money and will eventually lead to a negative spiral causing hyperinflation and finally a collapse. In a world with competition on money creation both of the systems will strive to deliver an as good as possible service for the user to keep them onboard and maintain or increase the value.
Although every revolution in human history happened through violence, this time it could be different. Since the code of Bitcoin can’t be destroyed by bullets, there are no servers to be shut down and users can use it anonymously and without censorship people will be able to use this system if they wish, they only have to download some software and they have an entire banking system in their pocket!
Banks and the most totalitarian governments will first try to destroy it, but when they figure out that this is impossible they have 3 choices:
- Improve their own system to compete
The only thing the legacy banking system can do to defeat Bitcoin is delivering a better system: Stop printing money out of thin air, build services where everyone on earth is even, create easy accessible systems with low fees, separate finance and politics and always prioritise the will of the user.
To be successful and make Bitcoin irrelevant they really have to follow these steps perfectly, because Bitcoin will be there as a passive regulator and drain their market on every mistake they make. This scenario would be very positive, since the current financial system will start to behave very well (because they have to) and the world will become prosperous and peaceful again.
However, it is highly unlikely that such a powerful group of people give up 99% of their power without resistance. Furthermore, it will be hard if not impossible to get a licence for a service without control and surveillance. However, Bitcoin could regulate this too when the Govs realise that they lost control anyway.
- Build their system on Bitcoin to stay relevant
The smartest players in the financial industry who understand that Bitcoin is here to stay will choose to create a banking service on top of Bitcoin. Of course they will lose a lot of control, profit margins will be much smaller in a world with competition and many legacy services will become obsolete, so they have to cut greatly in their business model.
However, Bitcoin is a fast moving technology and with some smart engineering and hard work it is surely possible to create a very profitable business, especially when you are the first one to jump on board.
Here comes the game theory in play:
Especially the smaller banks will see opportunity and jump on board, even if they know they will harm their own industry. This makes Bitcoin more valuable and resilient and will devalue the legacy system. This will signal to other financial institutions that they should change immediately, because the first to come in will have the biggest chance to survive and will profit most because there is no place for all of them.
Since the current banking system is an inefficient, much to big and heavily corrupted machine because the lack of competition for more than hundred years the biggest and most established Institutions will not make it to change fast enough and finally disappear. The funny thing is that this are exactly the most corrupted ones.
- Deny it and keep fighting to the end
This is what the most established institutions probably will do. They will lobby with the governments to restrict Bitcoin by law and spread a lot of senseless FUD on mainstream media. They know they will have to really produce a useful service for humanity to be competitive in the Bitcoin ecosystem and they know they are not able to deliver that after decennia of monopoly and easy money.
The only way is to fight back and they will do that to the bitter end (bitter for them, sweet for humanity). They will keep come out with FUD articles and mainstream media will keep publishing it. Eventually all the FUD will be proven not true in the real world, more people will wake up and drop mainstream media for decentralised information, governments will lose face and the banks that didn’t change their corrupt business model will go under.
There are actually two possible outcomes: Regulation of the current system by Bitcoin or a total displacement. In both cases the mission of Bitcoin will be accomplished!
The choice how to deal with Bitcoin will not be made by the entire financial system as one, but individual entities will go their own way through game theory. Small and easy manoeuvrable businesses will probably choose for the 2nd option and the big and establish businesses will probably combine 1 and 3. The game theoretic model of Bitcoin is set up in a way that businesses that are friendly to Bitcoin will survive and thrive and businesses that resist will suffer and eventually be destroyed. Whatever the banks do, humanity will be the winner!
The dinosaurs see the meteorite coming!
Since this year very established personalities in the legacy system have spoken out against Bitcoin after years of denial. Reading their words it is obvious that they see the threat and start to panic. In a relaxed state they wouldn’t say such senseless things. What they say on public TV is extremely stupid and sometimes even disgusting.
Lets start with the disgusting one
A while ago Charlie Munger was interviewed and when asked what his thoughts about Bitcoin were he compared it with ‘trading fresh harvested baby brains’. Even more than it is a stupid answer it is really disgusting. What does it tell you when one of the most ‘successful’ people in the world is not able to come up with good arguments to counter something while thousands of people are watching but can only come up with a disgusting answer like that?
I see hate in is words because something that he can’t beat is undermining the system that enriched him over the back of others for his entire life.
Then the most stupid one
Yesterday the news came out that the BIS (Bank for International Settlement) wants intervention to stop Bitcoin because it is a source of manipulation and fraud and destructive for the environment. They even claimed that Bitcoin could break the internet!
Firstly, the rapport is based on the assumption that the entire expansion of the network will happen onchain, while this is clearly not the path that Bitcoin is choosing because we know for years already that it is impossible to scale to mass adoption onchain (Bcashers think different but they are even dumber than the BIS). Offchain solutions are being build already.
Secondly, and even more important: In this calculation they totally ignore the free market forces that will play out, they are too much blinded by central planning and control I suspect. The entire world will not suddenly move to Bitcoin in one day, this will be a process.
When limits are about to be reached the market will pay a higher price for solutions. Innovation will increase and limits will be extended. Also, when the capacity of the internet is not enough, prices will rise and push a part of the use cases to other channels.
Asking BIS about Bitcoin is like asking a taxi company about Uber……
I believe Bitcoin in combination with Litecoin is already able to scale to mainstream through Lightning Network and the ability to connect the networks through atomic swaps. The technology is there, it only has to be build into the wallets to make it accessible for users.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/104828834/bitcoin-could-break-the-internet-warns-the-bis
And another one
Also Warren Buffet, worlds most famous investor who’s portfolio will heavily be damaged by the disruption of Bitcoin spoke out against it. He calls it rat poison, and actually he is right, but HE and his friends are the rats.
And the sneaky one
Jamie Dimon is one of the most famous dinosaurs that was denying the meteorite, fighting it and even called his own daughter stupid and finally jumped on the bandwagon. The sneaky thing is that he almost certainly has been buying when he was still against it through JP Morgan.
Conclusion:
The dinosaurs are starting to panic and however this could lead to some headwinds in the short term because of attacks it is EXTREMELY BULLISH for the long term. It means that Bitcoin start to challenge the legacy system and is not a small experimental project anymore. For the first time in modern history there is competition in money creation and this will lead to a peaceful revolution where all the fraud, abuse and violence will be weed out of the banking system and governments.
Disclaimer
This is no financial advice, just my view on the market.
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