One of the biggest challenges facing crypto is how it will roll out - be real and do real things. At the moment, the vast majority of projects lack even having made the initial steps to the roll out of their working product. Sure, they ICO'ed, the exchanges trade their coin, there's hype, the value is growing, but what about the real, working projects? Everyone who is a diehard proponent of their coin or token will tell you it's a sure thing, a solid bet, "you'll be driving a lambo soon," but STILL why is the market responding to whatever coin or token the way it is?
C'mon Fuck Coin is currently trading at some number greater than ZERO? Why? "Cause fuck you that's why!"
That's a mature bubble for you - irony notwithstanding.
Anyway, aside from my usual diatribes about what is driving crypto valuation, my big question now is on the structural performance end. At the moment, chasing moon missions is super fun. Basically any ICO means that one is going to get a return. Life is great aint it? Chasing gainz is the name of the game and ICO and recently ICO'ed coins generally post decent to stellar returns.
But why?
Because the crypto market, in sum, is in an incredible frothing to outright bubbling stage. There's no if, ands, or buts about it. I'm not saying that after the carnage of the pop there won't be any survivors, but the way the market is acting at the moment is nothing short of mind-bendingly insane. I think there's still a couple of months to a year or so left in her and this insanity, but let me illustrate what is going on through the beauty of metaphor.
Right now we're in the exciting stage of dating. Everything is cool, there's attraction, your significant other is the most interesting person you've ever known. You go out dancing, drink too much, and make love to early morning every time you spend the night together. You want more and more. Eventually, the initial attraction and excitement starts to wear off though. Your significant other takes a dump at your place, that meeting you have is super early and they want to stay up talking, energy is running lower. However, there's still love and lots of laughter. Anyway, time passes and the relationship formalizes ever more where arguments give way to making plans about how to pay bills and perhaps have a family. Things get steadier, less exciting, but nonetheless satisfying continuing to laugh a ton. Once in awhile you two still give way to the passions of the flesh and it's great, but it exists in a richer, deeper context that not only involves the idea of the beauty of it, but also the dirty reality - warts and all. That's love right?
Right now we're in the high energy make love all night phase. Eventually the responsible, building a life together phase is going to get going and boom coin picking is going to be centered on project and product, not hype.
All right, all right. The mayhem in the crypto market is more likened to an orgy than a monogamous relationship. In any event, the real deal crypto market is just around the corner when speculation gives way to product performance. We still have awhile till BTC starts coordinating and correlating with any other asset or asset class lending credence to its price activity. So, in the meantime, speculate to your heart's content, but recognize that the party will end and poof you'll be looking at your favorite coin taking a dump in the bathroom after accidentally walking in on it. If you can survive that dump (see what I did there?) then there might just be hope for the project.
Just remember that once the ICO period really starts to wrap up (probably prodded by government intervention) then the value of the coin will be based on its utility. For instance, I need some AI computing power then I'll need to buy some Deep Brain Chain (DBC) to get to use their networks. If they offer a good product, then of course I'll go through the hassle of getting involved in their ecosystem. So, if I'm hodling DBC for the long-term then what I'm saying is that in the long-term it's likely to be worth more once their product rolls out. If it's short-term than I'm trying to play on the overall market and speculation immediately relevant to DBC itself.
Anyway, the reason I wrote this article is because I felt that due to the news cycle dominating chats that some perspective might have been order.
We're all gonna make it!
Minderbinder
[Disclaimer: All the opinions expressed in this article are my own and are in no way meant to be construed as investment advice. Please exercise your own judgement in any investment or money management ideas that you happen to undertake in the traditional finance or cryptocurrency spaces. All images come from either personal files or websites that allow free images and each has an inline citation for reference. Good luck out there!]