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In this blog i will tell you about Bitcoin Market and its Market situation.
I have heard many throughout the crypto world make some erroneous claims about the current state of Bitcoin. The most common would have to be misusing the term bear market. Many claim that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since the fall from all time highs. This is a more than questionable claim if not completely incorrect. Why? Let’s take a look at the characteristics of a bear market and how they differ from a market correction, look at blow off tops and why this would be the better way to describe the current bitcoin market, compare the current market to the 2013–2015 bear market, go over a few possible scenarios we could face over the coming months.
Characteristics of Bear Markets:
1-Bear markets have consistent lower highs and lower lows (a downtrend) with occasional periods of consolidation that result in a continuation of said downtrend. This is called redistribution which we will get to later.
2-Bear markets break the uptrend line that carried the price from birth or the end of the last bear market to all time highs on both standard and logarithmic charts. This uptrend line should be drawn from the reversal point of the last downtrend through a minimum of three correction lows — not just as many lows as you can fit the line to. Drawing this correctly can be a bit tricky especially with something as volatile as bitcoin. I will describe this in detail later.
3-Bear markets experience a massive surge of volume (volume expansion) in the direction of the downtrend.
In traditional markets, bear markets on average last 365–540 days (12–18 months).
4-Bear markets are painful. These are recession and/or depression level events. Investors across the board lose all confidence in the asset. These are not to be confused with large market corrections or blow off tops, though either can turn into a bear market if they fail to reverse.
Characteristics of Market Corrections:
1-Always follow large, rapid run ups in price not supported by the underlying valuation of the asset. Corrections are market punishment for over-speculation, over-valuation, etc.
2- Often fall into a range with signs of accumulation at the base of the range, also known as a reaccumulation phase before an uptrend continuation. Volume contracts on each down move inside of said range, and expands on each up move. This can be seen on smaller time frames. On larger time frames, volume will be lower than historic levels (consolidation).
3- Corrections bounce above or off of an existing uptrend line. This bounce often occurs from the only lower low of the range if one is present. You will usually see a series of either higher or slightly flat lows with lower highs.
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Mudassar Hussain