Hi All
My second post on Steemit, where I am looking to apply some analytical sense into the Bitcoin trend, to see if it will reach the 1M USD price anywhere soon or if it makes sense still to hop onto the wagon.
In financial analysis and forecasting there are multiple ways of forecasting a trend, one of those ways is to find the CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) trend and apply it to future dates.
If we take the Bitcoin example, below you can see in the table the annual Bitcoin price on June of that year:
And the CAGR till today in case we started to invest in June of the related year in the cells below:
The average CAGR over the 8 years would be 226%, for simplicity, let's run that average to the years to come, this will give us a rough estimate of where the Bitcoin price will be:
So somewhere, around New year 2025, 1 BTC would average 1Million USD.. and we will have a bunch of new "Gazillionaires"!
Please note that the above is a rough linear estimate based on the previous trend, we do not factor in any decreasing CAGR trend that will reduce the estimates further, we do not factor in further external events like a hard fork permanent effect, switch / flippening to other promising coins like the ETH or DASH or LTC, Global events, like suppressing the BTC nodes or stiff US counter regulation / outlawing the BTC, or positive factors like global regulation and endorsement etc.. in brief we apply the past to the future.
Hope this helps give you a glimpse on what to expect and HODL! like you never did before.. like Hodor!
PS the CAGR formula used is: (((ValueEnd/ValueStart)^(1/Timeframe))-1 ) %
Cheers
Mike