With a strong surge into the red, I can certainly see why people are worried. However, this recent BTC flash crash appears to be normal in several ways. Remember, these kinds of crashes are in agreement with historical data on BTC!!!
Volatility is Healthy!!
To those of us who have been watching the crypto markets for a while, we are used to seeing 50% crashes not and again. In fact, it is this very volatility that brings us into the crypto markets. Additionally, it is this volatility that gives us the motive to move these technologies to new heights both in terms of price and in terms of adoption. The high volatility is a sign that our market is still in its infancy, and that it has a lot of room to move.
Where is Support for BTC??
While I am certainly a fan of new technologies such as ADA and ETH, BTC is still the main driver in our market. When BTC rises, we go up and when BTC falls we all go down. When looking for support levels, I think that we will hover around the 9.2-10.5k$ crash window on this drop. This will take us to the level we were at in early December before the most recent run up (only 45 days ago).
In watching the crash, one can see that there is a huge buy wall in the 10k$ range, and it appears that now we are simply running out of sellers to drive the price down further. While there is certainly potential to go lower, it would take a huge wave of sellers to get us down to the next support level at 7.2-8.5k$. This can be seen by inspecting volume, as well as MACD. MACD is clearly showing resistance to a deeper plunge downwards, indicating that there are buyers coming out.
And Finally Some TA Insights
While Elliot waves are useful analysis tools, they are often not the best indicator of future price drops and they should not be relied upon to invest. Looking at the chart, it appears that we are looking at a protracted A-B-C correction. This has been laid out on the chart above. This correction brings BTC off its all time high, back to a more sustainable level. It is a 50% correction, which is more or less in line with what we might expect from Elliot wave theory. Look for a bottom out in the 9.5-10.5k$ range. Also, if you have cash on hand, this might be a good time to strengthen your position.
Standard Legal Note
These solely my own ideas. This is by no means professional financial advice and I cannot be held accountable for any investment decisions undertaken by reading this article.
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