It has been a while and even I did write some things I never finished it and posted it here - which is a shame because I wrote some things which played out very well - like the fake breakout on bitcoin around 17000$ based on this: http://forextraininggroup.com/learn-trade-profit-chart-pattern-failures/ - and therefore it would have been nice if I posted that here. Unfortunately I didn't because I was to busy with other things but here I am again :p
My last posted article was for a big part about the rising wedge on bitcoin and that one had a breakout up instead of breaking down. According to some TA stuff that breakout up had a change of 32% so that's why I was out at that moment because the odds were not in my favor at that point. But with the futures fundamentals these TA odds changed and we saw a huge uprun. So I have never been out in crypto for very long because I bought back in when the breakout up was confirmed and that was the point when the crazy bitcoin rally started. After bitcoin calmed down, the altcoins started to rally and if we recap this shit it was some crazy months.
So these past weeks seems rough but in perspective it is not that bad at all. In this post I want to discuss another wedge on bitcoin but this time it's not a rising wedge but a falling wedge. 68% change for a breakout up this time, but fundamentals could change these odds (again). So 32% change for a breakout down and with strong fundamentals (in this case FUD) this could happen but that's not the assumption I have writing this article.
My view
At this point we have to wait for a break out of the falling wedge. There is some playroom left so this could last another month.
For me, the blue line is the mean. Depending on the news in the upcoming month we could go below that blue line for a short time with a quick touch at 6800$ or something and then it would recover back to the blue line around 8000$.
I would say don't make any trades at this point because we are sitting around the 8000$ price and I think we will see in the upcoming days that this is a very well respected price. As I mentioned before, maybe with one more FUD injection we could go to 6800 or even 6000$ (bottom of the falling wedge) but you can't know that and for me it's not worth making that trade hoping it will go that low. So at this point, I take into account I could lose another 25% of my portfolio. I would suggest you do the same.
Perfect moment to do some other things in life in the upcoming month :)