And yet another mini crash as price was unable to definitively pierce $11,600; the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle. After this definitive price rejection Bitcoin spent the next 5 hours falling 11% to around $10,250 before being bought up and again pushed North of $11,000.
While the precipitous decline in price from $11,600 likely hurt some and forced them to panic sell in the lower ranges of $10,000, it was, as I noted yesterday an expected event.
“another bullish wedge/symmetrical triangle with a floor of $10,136 and ceiling around $11,600.”
Source: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-25-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
Expect more of the same ranging price action today, with a new potential ceiling around $11,330 with a tentative floor of $10,325 as the range consistently narrows with each passing hour.
This is a pretty epic Bulls vs. Bears battle and entirely too volatile a market for me to enter with 12 percent swings every 7 hours; so I’ll wait it out, perhaps play lightly on smaller time frames and do nothing substantive until I have clear confirmation of trend reversal.
The charts are not really providing any additional insight over those of yesterday; we are still trapped in the narrowing boundaries of a symmetrical triangle with an apex price of $10,450 occurring at 11 p.m on the 29th of January (based on how the lines are drawn on my charts, so this is not definitive as wicks may or may not be included etc but it should be +/- 12 hours). As price tends to break up or down in a big way prior to reaching the Apex we “should” have confirmation of reversal (correction over) or continuation (one more lower low) within a short period of time; 48 hours or less.
Statistically speaking symmetrical triangles:
Break upward 54% of the time and 75% of the way to the triangle apex (upward breakout) and 73% of the way for downward breakouts
Just a quick look at the charts..
I’m going to do the 12 hour today and then use the 2 hour for illustrative purposes to show progression from yesterday. In the 12, nothing has really changed, MACD is still roughly where it was yesterday, though the recent buy back at $10,300 gave us 1 increasing bar so far which has allowed us to stay afloat a bit longer. The RSI is about as indecisive as it can be hovering at .50. This is indicative of a much undecided market full of hopeful bulls and pessimistic bears continually battling it out. Selling volume nearly doubled during the latest decline increasing to 32k over the previous 16k with current buying volume at 11k. Translation we need consistent period over period buying volume that exceeds the 32k sell off to really cement in a floor and provide the foundation for higher highs. All in all pretty much the same as it was yesterday in regards to being trapped in a pattern full of indecision with no clear indication whether future prices are going higher or lower.
The two hour is for illustrative purposes only as it provides a bit clearer picture of the symmetrical triangle. Circled in red is the market point at the release of my Market report yesterday. So essentially we need to either break through the top or we will fall through the bottom. There may be one more small bounce left from the bottom in which case I doubt we will hit the top again and will likely fold midway up at a sub $11,000 price point in favor of a high volume lower low. For an example look at how we folded on the $13,000 at the previous symmetrical triangle. We went back to the bottom at $13,100 tried to climb, got around $14,000, went sideways for a bit, started trending down, the bottom fell out and we crashed to $9200. If we cannot reach the top of the triangle today, I would likely expect a similar event as thousands of other traders watching this pattern see it begin to fold up and decide to go FIAT until the storm is over.
My Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-25-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-24-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-23-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-22-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-21-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-20-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-evening
