For bitcoin, 2017 was a year like no other. The digital currency not only recorded unprecedented gains, it single-handedly ushered a new asset class that is becoming the first real alternative to fiat currency in the modern era.
Why 2018 is Decisive for Bitcoin
Speaking with CNBC, McNamee — an early Facebook investor McNamee compared it — favorably — to the dotcom bubble that occurred at the turn of the millennium, recognizing that although the bubble caused a brief recession it spawned a legitimate, transformative industry.explained that next year will be crucial in determining whether bitcoin’s ascent is sustainable over the long-term or whether it will prove to be a short-term asset bubble.
Bitcoin is “still a very small market in the context of the larger financial world, but it has had a huge year,” McNamee said on “Fast Money.” We’ve done it around a speculative mania…”If a mania goes on long enough, it becomes self-fulfilling. Even after a crash, what follows is a legitimate industry.”
The key, he said, is that bitcoin continues to captivate investors long enough that the “mania” becomes “self-fulfilling,” and he believes that this will be apparent by the end of 2018.
“With the amount of activity going on around it, there are people willing to invest the kind of dollars it takes to make a thing like bitcoin into a long-term part of the financial market,” he said. “You’ll have these big swings, up and presumably down, as well. And, you know, wherever that settles out I think will tell us a lot about the role of bitcoin long-term.”
Major Themes for 2018
Several major themes will influence bitcoin’s price trajectory this year, chief among them being the regulatory landscape governing cryptocurrency. South Korea – arguably one of the most favorable jurisdictions for trading cryptocurrency – is in the process of implementing new regulations aimed at curtailing speculation. The strategy includes barring people from opening new crypto accounts and from trading anonymously. Top policymakers in the country have also said they are not opposed to shutting down crypto exchanges should the new regulations fail to deter speculation.
In the United States, securities regulators are carefully evaluating the burgeoning ICO market for suspicious behavior. In 2017, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shut down The Dao token for security violation. The regulator also warned against ICOs endorsed by celebrities and scams that use the crowdraise model to lure investors. In response, the SEC has created a new cyber unit to police ICOs and bring them to justice, where necessary.
Evolving regulations and uncertainty about the future have placed considerable strain on the crypto market. In September, China issues a blanket ban on crypto exchanges and ICOs, triggering a massive correction. Other nations are still feeling their way through the asset class, with the likes of Russia and Kazakhstan calling for state-backed cryptocurrencies.
In addition to regulation, the debate over blockchain scalability will continue to influence investor sentiment. Disagreement over bitcoin’s existing protocol has led to multiple coin splits, including the now famous bitcoin cash fork. A few months later, bitcoin gold would also emerge following disagreements over the mining process.
The performance of altcoins will also be top of mind for investors in the new year, as many alternative cryptos begin charting their own path away from bitcoin. It should be clear by now that bitcoin no longer holds the same position it once did as the de facto king of the crypto market. Today, bitcoin accounts for less than 40% of the total market share for cryptocurrency, down from roughly 90% at the start of 2017.
Of course, there are many positive developments that are working in bitcoin’s favor, and will continue to do so throughout 2018. The launching of bitcoin futures on CBOE and CME has been heralded as a major achievement in bringing cryptocurrency to the mainstream. With Nasdaq expected to follow suit, investors will have plenty of options to bet on bitcoin using more traditional financial vehicles.
CBOE has also filed to list several bitcoin futures ETFs. If approved, the digital currency will be accessible to millions of investors through traditional retirement accounts.
Debates over bitcoin’s future are typically ideological as much as they are value-based. The general view on Wall Street is that the digital asset class as a whole is significantly overvalued, with many arguing that bitcoin has no intrinsic value and thus cannot be evaluated. Yet others, like Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss and John McAfee, believe bitcoin can still grow many factors above its current level.
Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.