I recently came across this video by Andreas Antonopolous from way back in 2015, describing the stages that traditional institutions are going to pass through as Bitcoin and Blockchain based processes attain their maturity. He described five stages to this process, each more 'heart-breaking' than the one before.
The following is my interpretation of those Five stages of Disruptive Grief:
1. Denial
Around 2013 or so, when Bitcoin was still in the Innovators or, quite possibly, the early adopters phase on the Everett Rogers curve, a lot of traction was being accumulated by it, of which most wasn't necessarily on the positive side. Institutions, Corporations and Governments alike seemed to join hands in targeting the darker side of Bitcoin and how it was the worst thing that could've happened to the Internet, something that provides a frictionless flow of all the things they stand against, how bitcoin was the major reason for all criminal and illicit activities that takes place on the Internet and so on. Without any clue of the core ideas and capabilities that backed the technology, massive efforts were being initiated to push bitcoin under the rug.
Little did they know that Bitcoin had so much more in it.
2. Anger
Okay, fast forwarding a few years, its 2015 and Bitcoin is still getting popular by the day. Somehow, surviving blow after blow, Bitcoin has managed to accumulate a few billion dollars in capitalisation, daily trades of several hundred million and most importantly, large-scale recognition. For some reason, every time anyone tried to push it down, it sprang up to heights it had never seen before. Bitcoin was the thing you had to hear about, be it good or bad.
That's when the anger started to settle in. The anger of being able to foresee the inevitable destruction of intermediation. The anger in realising that their words aren't worth anymore.
And so, the accusations started pouring. Bitcoin was now the scam of the century, the drug users cash, the terrorist funder and an exchange for child porn.
3. Bargaining
BLOCKCHAIN! BLOCKCHAIN! BLOCKCHAIN!
2018 is about to end and Blockchain is the hot topic of the year. Random institutions that have no connection to anything related to the idea, along with some that are inevitably going to be disrupted are suddenly setting up Blockchain study groups to explore the so-called "possibilities". Banks have formed consortiums, Governments are issuing their own digitised currencies, corporations are changing their names to add blockchain, all with the hopes of attain a bargaining chip, with the hopes that doing so might cement their previous relevance in the upcoming shift of market power. Institutions were bargaining for a place in the very area they accused others of being.
The end is inevitable for most, at the same time, by-passable for a few.
4. Depression
Overnight, innumerable establishments that have structured themselves for hundreds of years as the sole intermediaries of their fields, are about to vanish into thin air. Chaos is about to break out for everyone invested in trying to maintain their hold, in the hopes that the traditional ecosystem would continue to prevail. Organizations that do not try to bypass this phase, are most likely to fall into the downward financial spiral.
But this depression is not necessarily a downside for most. It is certainly threatening for financial and operational intermediaries who are unlikely to change, but on the other side, a huge opportunity for the mass to incorporate newer and more efficient practices into their ecosystem that provide equally innumerable opportunities for innovation.
5. Acceptance
A whole new era of market players are about to rise. Organizations that are unable to realise the threats and bypass the above phases would be termed as ancient. Those who had embraced the change way before their competitors even recognised a noticeable threat to their ecosystem, will be the ones to emerge on the top. Blockchain is about to make way for a new generation of leaders and innovators, all of whom had witnessed first-hand, the drawbacks that they overcame in order to be free from the clutched they were held in.
Acceptance is the only viable strategy for the players who wish to continue playing the game. Accepting that the rules are beginning to change, accepting that a market shift is inevitable and accepting that the power will change hands. From the few, to the many.
- SB