The bitcoin price has inspired numerous bets over the years, mainly along the lines of ‘X amount by this date.’ Now, Bitcoinist‘s very own technical analyst, fil₿fil₿, has joined the fun — with a bet on Bitcoin’s bottom.
It Started With A Diss
The whole thing started when upcoming crypto-analyst @Sawcruhteez tweeted a pessimistic prediction. Unless bitcoin breaks a year-long declining trend-line by May, he suggested, we could see a drop similar to last November. He included a chart of how this may look, with bitcoin price down to under $1000.
Lucid Investments’ Leah Wald then jumped onboard, while plugging Lucid’s Hyperwave theory, which @Sawcruhteez supposedly uses in his trading strategy. She signed off with a provocative challenge:
I Never Thought It Would Come To This
Turns out fil₿fil₿ was feeling just fine, thank you very much — certainly confident enough to oppose any bet that Bitcoin would trade under $1000. His proposed winning condition for the one-BTC bet was Bitcoin trading above $6000.
A slight tweak to the terms from Wald — setting lower and upper limits to $1500 and $6500 — and the bet was on.
Um… Is That A Fair Bet?
It may initially seem like a fil₿fil₿ victory sees him win a $6500-value bitcoin in a bull-market, whilst a loss means Wald is left catching a falling $1500-value knife…
…which it continues to seem like, but Wald insists that she is long-term bullish — so the bitcoin price at completion is fairly irrelevant. After all, in the long term, 1 BTC = 1 BTC. If both sides have conviction in their belief, then it doesn’t matter because they aren’t going to lose.
Interestingly, Wald’s insistence of a shift to $1500-$6500 limits puts the current price of around $4000 directly in the middle. However, this ignores the logarithmic nature of the system. A drop from $4000 to $1500 represents a 62.5 percent move, whereas a move up to $6500 represents a 38.5 percent move.
Anyway, for his part, fil₿fil₿ says $1300 was his absolute bottom prediction if everything went ‘cray,’ so he isn’t as risk-free as he would have liked. But the stakes are certainly lower than many of the bets that have been put out there and, at least, there is no risk of him having to eat his own tickle-tackle on the telly.
What do you think of our beloved fil₿fil₿’s bet? Let us know who you think will win in the comments below!
Story source: Bitcoints.com