Thanks for your very thoughtful reply! I think segwit is a bandaid. It covers the wound, but doesn't stop the bleeding, although it slowed it down a bit. Quite a few devs saw that too, and that's why bitcoin has forked a few times.

I think we'll see btc go down this year, not up. More people will get frustrated by the self imposed limitations. Other coins will pick up from that. I agree with your observations.