Very nice overview of interesting factors. I disagree however that the current low transaction fees and the smaller pool of unconfirmed tranasactions are a good sign. The fees shooting up in december created a big red flashing warning light that needs to be addressed. I don't think segwit will solve these problems, because if more people want to get into bitcoin and the network cannot accomodate that, it will fail again at some point. It's a fundamental flaw of how the btc system is maintained.

I checked out the lightning network proposals too and I dislike it completely, because it looks exactly the same as the current banking system. It concentrates power, and with that it creates options for abuse. If the lightning network is indeed implemented it will turn btc into a hybrid. I see no advantage of doing that.

In my view all these things are setting btc up for failure in the not so distant future. That makes me too uncertain about the future price of btc to invest in it.