I've been around a while. I originally started looking into bitcoin when it first hit parity with the USD in 2011. Back when it was possible to build a mining rig for yourself. Back when the only use for bitcoin was buying drugs and playing around with this new 'digital currency'. There was no expectation of future values then, it was just a fun way to transfer value. I went through the pain of learning CMD miner apps, I even bought a butterfly labs miner at one point. I've seen the rise and fall of many many altcoins. The transition of the community. The many pump and dump scams. The evolution of the exchanges and the massive rise in market depth. All in all, it's been a very insightful and frankly fun journey.
So I was thinking over my own slowly changing thoughts, and realised that I'd always had a similar mindset that never seemed to change, regardless of circumstances:
- When bitcoin was $1, I thought "Maybe it could reach $10 one day, that would be amazing, but $100 is impossible".
- When bitcoin hit $30, I thought "Wow! maybe it could reach $100 one day, that would be amazing, but $500 would be impossible"
- Then when bitcoin starting breaching $100, and didn't stop, I thought again "wow, this could one day reach up to maybe $500, that would be something, but $1000 is impossible"
- Then it jumped again, all the way past $1000 and I thought "wow, this is more than I ever thought, maybe one day it could reach $2000, but something like $3000 is impossible.
Today, it's breaching the $3,000 USD mark.
My simple point is, my intuitions and feelings have always been wrong, even though I've been around a long time. It's impossible to tell what a market is going to do, and even though I think the current market is irrational, one thing is for sure, it's utterly unpredictable.
This isn't a puff piece or a criticism. It's simply a personal recap of my own thoughts over the last 5 to 6 years.
Today, I still have the intuition / feeling that "1BTC = $10,000 USD is impossible". However, if history continues, who knows...
