Bitcoin 我的掘礦記事報告 四 / My Mining Journal - 4

### English Version

Your mindset controls your destiny. Be calm and positive all the time. It is always important to know this key fact, especially in time of troubles.

Importance of Understanding the Mechanism and Adequate Projections

First, let’s take a look in the plot right below the title. From China ICO Ban to the next time it reached the same price level, it took 29 days. The Maintenance I paid for this 29 days were so high that made me feel cautious. Look at the Net Income and you should see it stabilized but not bounced back. If more Hashrates were drawn due to price, the Mining output would drop further.

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/25	0.00378607	0.00074859	0.00303748	4408.2876
2017/9/5	0.00315528	0.00074625	0.00240903	4422.1106
2017/10/2	0.00245338	0.00074931	0.00170407	4404.0517

Right after 2nd Oct, the price dropped again, so scary. If the price dropped further, the next wave of price drop would have due. My Cloud Mining Net Income would suffer further.

I got used to the drop

Well, I started get used to the fact that my mining income would be affected. But still, I believed Bitcoin should have its value after all. Wasn’t this a good mindset?

Good mindset gave me good rewards. I start to have mood to look at my projections made in mid-August. Oh, it seemed to be not that bad!

Date	Mining	Maintenance	Net Inccome	Price
2017/8/8	0.00314997	0.00095565	0.00219432	3453.1471
2017/10/2	0.00245338	0.00074931	0.00170407	4404.0517

The Net Income dropped by only 22% between 8th Aug and 2nd Oct, not 50% I saw from the highest point previously. Looking at the Mining output, same 22%. I realized I should look more closely into my data!

The difficulties adjustment I experienced since day 0 were 4 times at that point.

% left of the Mining output after 4 difficulties adjustment:
1 x (1-7%) x 93% x 93% x 93% = 74%

My Mining output should have decreased by 26%, but the actual daily Mining output reduced by only 22% at that point. This is better than my projections in Mid-August. Even I experienced double impact from Price drop and output drop, it was still better than my original estimates.

Then, I used a more stupid calculation method that ignored price changes and mining difficulties, by multiplying the 1st day Net Income with days:

2017/8/8
0.00219432 x 55 = 0.12068760

My actual accumulated Net Income is 0.12239545. This means even my idiotically positive estimation were lower than what I got at that time.

I felt great, and feeling great until now. My negative mindset went away completely, had more energy for Steemit writing. A good mindset turns to good outcome because I escaped from unnecessary worries and can focus on writing better Steemit Story.

I saw many Bitcoin favorable factors.

Since then, I was able to see some Bitcoin favorable factors that had been ignored. On 3rd Oct, although price was still dropping, I see things differently.

1st, the market saw support at the lowest point at around $3000, the next pull back should have support at that point. The China influences has been completely irrelevant because China has used all the ways they could influence the market, but price of Bitcoin could still manage to get back to the price before the ICO Ban. I saw this positive because there would not be any negative factor from China that can significantly influence the price of Bitcoin anymore.

Key Take Away

I have learnt 3 things:

• Positive thinking is extremely important. It helps you to get out from the dark.
• The market always changes more than people expects. Proper projections with multi-variable inputs can help tackling panics.
• The reaction of the market can be exaggerated. We often need better insight to avoid overreacting that causes losses.

I know, I am only lucky.