"Listen to your elders but make your own decision" sounds like a good advice.
When a respected investment luminary speaks, I think we should listen and discern what he's trying to say. Buffet said the following during a recent interview with CNBC:
- "The recent craze over bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies won't end well".
- "When it happens or how or anything else, I don't know".
- "But I would not take a short position on bitcoin futures".
Video:
I'm a believer and a supporter of the bitcoin revolution but I won't dismiss what Warren is saying as mumbo-jumbo, although it may sound like it especially that his statements seem to contradict each other - if your certain it won't end well, then you should be certain that you will make a handsome profit if you short it - make sense?
Perhaps he is just making a general statement. Maybe he really mean is that out of the 1,300+ cryptocurrencies, only a handful of them will survive and the rest will crash and burn like meteorites. I'm pretty sure he is not comparing bitcoin and altcoins to the tulip mania just like the other pundits in the investment and banking industries. I think he is comparing bitcoin to the dot.com revolution where thousands of companies perished and only a few in the likes of Amazon, Facebook, Expedia, Twitter, Netflix etc proved to be the fittest.
If you look at it from this angle, I would argue he is absolutely right. Having 1,300+ cryptocurrencies is utterly unsustainable in the long run. Survival of the fittest does not just apply to the animal kingdom but to human inventions as well. Think of it, how many fiat currencies do we have right now? Around 195 (since there are 195 countries right now). 195 I think the biggest number of cryptos that can co-exist long-term assuming the scenario where each country of the world "adapts" one crypto as their own. But this is still too high considering the very nature of cryptos - borderless whose value does not depend on a single economy or country.
Which crypto will survive and which ones will perish remains to be seen since we are still the in the "exploration" stage - more and more crypto are being born every day. In the latter part of 2018 however, we could be entering the "exploitation" stage and existing cryptos by then will battle it out for survival.
In my next blogs, I will peel the onion on this "survival of the fittest" topic to give a bird's-eye view of the crypto universe.
Disclosure: This post does not intend to provide investment nor does it represents that the securities or services discussed are suitable for any investor. Investors are advised not to rely on any information contained in the article in the process of making a fully informed investment decision.
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