NATIONALIST AND POPULIST
MOVEMENTS.
IT'S EVERYWHERE.
MARIA: HERE WE ARE WITH ALL THE
METRICS YOU'RE BRINGING UP, THEY
DO NOT SUPPORT A FEDERAL RESERVE
THAT'S GOING TO RAISE INTEREST
RATES 4 TIMES THIS YEAR AND
THAT'S WHY THE PRESIDENT HAS
BEEN SO UPSET ABOUT THIS, JANET
YELLEN FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE
FED IS SPEAKING OUT AGAINST THE
PRESIDENT'S COMMENTS ABOUT
CENTRAL BANK, THEY ARE
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, DON'T CALL
THE FED CRAZY AND LOCO, IT'S
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE AND YET YOU
ARE SAYING THEY ARE CRAZY?
I DON'T THINK THEY ARE CRAZY.
I THINK THE FED HAS BEEN BEHIND
THE CURVE FOR A LONG TIME, I
SAID A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO THAT
THEY WERE FAR BEHIND -- 13 WHEN
THE ECONOMY STARTED TO RECOVER
THEY SHOULD HAVE RAISED RATES 3
TO 4% RANGE.
SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES FOR
100 YEARS HAVE BEEN EQUAL TO
NOMINAL GDP.
NOMINAL GDP TODAY IS SOMEWHERE 4
OR 5%.
SHORT-TERM RATE SHOULD BE THERE.
WHAT'S GOING TO TILT INTO
RECESSION, I THINK IT'S INVERTED
YIELD CURVE, SHORT-TERM RATES
SHOULD KEEP COMING UP.
HAVE NICE CLEANSING RECESSION,
THERE'S A LOT OF ZOMBIE
COMPANIES, 14% OF COMPANIES IN
THE S&P COULDN'T PAY THEIR DEBT
SERVICE WITH THEIR NEXT 3 YEARS,
THOSE COMPANIES NEED TO GO AWAY
AND THE STRONG COMPANY NEEDS TO
SURVIVE.
DAGEN: SO FAR IF PEOPLE ARE
SELLING LONG-TERM TREASURIES
THAT'S A SIGN THAT THE ECONOMY
LOOKS OKAY DOES IT NOT?
WE HAVE SEEN STABILITY IN THE
YIELD CURVE AND IT'S NOT VERY
FLAT?
IT'S VERY FLAT.
DAGEN: IT'S NOT THE FLATTEST IT
HAS BEEN IN YEARS, LINDSEY?
YEAH, IT IS.
IT CAME OFF A COUPLE BASIS
POINTS.
IT'S ALMOST INVERTED.
THE REASON 30-YEAR IS NOT RISING
AS MUCH AS SHORT-TERM IS PEOPLE
BELIEVE THAT THE FED IS MAKING
POLICY ERROR, THAT'S WHAT THE
MARKET IS TELLING THE FED.
IF IT DOES INVERT THAT WOULD BE
THE MARKET SAYING WE DON'T
BELIEVE THE GROWTH IS THERE.
JON: KEEP RAISING WHEN INFLATION
AT 2% --
MARIA: I THINK WE ALL AGREE THE
FED SHOULDN'T KEEP RAISING.
I LOOK AT IT, I DON'T THINK
THAT CPI IS GOOD MEASURE OF
INFLATION.
THERE'S A LOT OF COST THAT WE
SPEND MONEY ON THAT'S
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THAT.
I THINK THAT NOMINAL INTEREST
RATES ARE A LITTLE BIT TOO LOW.
I DON'T THINK THEY SHOULD BE 5
OR 6%, THEY COULD BE HIGHER.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS WHEN YOU'RE
LATE IN THE CYCLE YOU NEED TO
HAVE HIGHER RATE SO WHEN THE
CYCLE TURNS AND THINGS TARGET TO
GET NEGATIVE THE FED CAN CUT
AGAIN.
THEY REALLY ARE OUT OF TOOLS IF
WE DO GO INTO A RECESSION.
JON: YOU DON'T WANT TO RAISE
RATES SO MUCH THAT YOU CAUSE
RECESSION THAT YOU HAVE THE
ABILITY TO FIGHT BECAUSE YOU'VE
RAISED RATES SO MUCH?
I MEAN A BIG BELIEVER THAT
RECESSION ARE PART OF CYCLE, WE
SHOULDN'T ATTEMPT TO ABOLISH
THEM IN THE FIRST PLACE.
I WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THAT THE
LOCO PART OF THE FED WAS KEEPING
ZERO INTEREST RATES.
MARIA: THAT WAS UP THERE WITH
LOCO, CRYPTO CURRENCY?
WE THINK EQUITY MARKETS ARE
THE BEGINNINGS OF BEAR MARKET,
CRYPTO MARKETS, BEGINNING OF
BULL MARKET.
I'M A BIG BELIEVER THAT SOUND
MONEY, RIGHT, WHAT NONFIAT
CURRENCY, CURRENCY ALL AROUND
THE WORLD HAVE STARTED TO
EXPLODE.
LOOK WHAT HAPPENED AT IN
ZIMBABWE AND VENEZUELA.
WHEN THERE'S SO MUCH DEBT THEY
CAN'T SUPPORT DEBT.
HUGE, DAGEN, THAT'S A HUGE
DEVELOPMENT AND WHAT IT SAYS THE
GREAT WALL OF MONEY, INVESTORS
ARE COMING FOR THIS ASSET AND IT
IS THE FIRST ALTERNATIVE ASSET
REALLY IN MY CAREER THAT
DELIVERS ON THE PROMISE.
BETTER RETURNS.
LOVE BITCOIN.
WE THINK THAT'S DIGITAL GOLD
ULTIMATELY BE RESERVE CURRENCY,
A, NOT B.
LIKE THE WWW DOT OF INTERNET OF
VALUE OR TRUST NET.
INTERNET TO MOBILE NET AND NOW
THE TRUST NET.