In these non-euphoric times (going on a good three weeks now) it's time to reflect I think. The Lambo-order is put on hold, and your friends and family is poking you and asking you with malicious delight how the crypto market is going - and coming with some standard sentences they've read in the mainstream media about how the "tech" behind is OK, but really nothing different than torrent sites..
Well, I'm no expert on the technology behind. But I do understand the basics, and I do understand psychology, markets and interruptive things. I'm a hawk on news, and I know how to navigate the waters. Let me be the beacon in your life right now...
The road ahead
The stagnant market right now is in my opinion based on different things. First, it is somewhat responding to technical indicators and things that has happened in the past. These patterns often replicate, and that's why some traders are successful with technical analysis (and money management) as trading tactics. Second, we are halting because governments and traditional banks are stepping up the game.
We have country after country "striking down" but not actually doing much yet. We have "liberal" nations like France and Germany talking about regulations and bans.
And there are many possible scenarios.
They could of course just ban crypto trading, saying it is for our own good. Most people will at this point stand behind a decision like that - having no problems with that kind of violence. They are so used to it anyway. That way they can attract more developers and programmers to the state, helping them develop blockchain solutions that give them a larger advantage.
This is probably what governments and banks most want to do. They want the technology, but they don't want it to be a currency. The only problem with that is that blockchain technology is both. Distributed ledgers ARE currencies.
So they either have to implement a way to be able to tax all profits gained from cryptos, or they will have to try and stagnate/stop people from buying/selling and using them. The problem with that however, is that they know that technology and progress can only happen in a free market. Governments only inhibit progress with their regulations.
Regulations are only implemented to get what they want - which is what they need to survive - taxation. Taxation is just a way of transferring money from someone productive, to someone not productive. Non-productive people will of course continue to vote for governments, because they take money from the productive people and give it to them.
The battle
And this of course creates a quite hectic and difficult race for both sides. The world needs the tech to grow forward. But in order to protect the old system with governments and taxation, violence and theft must continue to happen. Cryptos makes that very difficult though. And this is where the battlefield is.
Will the free market manage to develop decentralized exchanged (Ethos, cobinhood, Komodo, Payfair etc) being run on Decentralize Internet like Substratum, BEFORE governments crack down on the larger centralized exchanges that people use now, like Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex?
And even if we win that race, how can we stop governments and banks from preventing us to deposit Fiat from our traditional banks? If they want, they can halt withdrawals from traditional banks into crypto exchanges. Or they could make it illegal.
But on the other hand, that shows their true colors, Their true oppressive and fascist intentions.
Going forward, I'm sure some countries will chose to do the opposite of others. And we don't need that many countries opening up and thinking completely different before people flock into those countries. Of course, the rest of the world will see what kind of heaven on earth that country will be, and they will have no other option than either locking down their country spewing out propaganda to tell their people how horrible and capitalistic it is in that crypto-country, and how great we are here according to this new poll we just made for ourselves.
I think it's important to be aware of the risks here. If you are only in this to make money, I would have some nerves. However, if you are in this because you are fucking fed up being abused and inhibited - and you've seen how much you've grown the past 6 months, year or couple of years - just because you had to learn how to take fucking responsibility for your self - this is much more than just Lambos. This is freedom vs oppression. Old system vs new not-system.
IMO this is more a ideological battle. Between the optimists, freaks, anarchists, weirdos and nonconformists, and the oppressive violent brainwashed people. Money is not that important. Make sure you have a great life regardless. Be easily adaptive. You have to live in a shack? Cool. You're a hobo now. Sweet. You're on an adventure.