I've been trying to figure out what is going to happen once the futures market open. I doubt I will go early to sleep tonight, as the markets open up at 00:00 mytime.
The facts
The first ever futures markets for Bitcoin opens on Cboe Sunday night, approximately 23:00 GMT. Next week the CME futures will open. All this will of course open a door to greater inflow of institutional money, for good and bad. What the futures do is also to make it easier to bet on Bitcoin´s decline.
The good
The good thing about this is of course more money and more liquidity. Although, I doubt the market will skyrocket this evening just because the relatively small Cboe has launched it's futures contracts. I also seriously doubt there will be any significant shorting of Bitcoin. Sure, traders will trade and place short bets and long bets, but Bitcoin is still gaining momentum and is wildly undervalued as I have argued many times over. Remember, the futures contracts give "traditional" money a way to invest in Bitcoin. Future markets does not only mean shorting, it also means people going long.
For a few select people buying, trading and owning real Bitcoins is easy. Computer savvy people have no problems doing this. Those of us that are relatively good with computers, meaning - we grew up with them, we aren't afraid of them, we're not afraid to press buttons, we know our way around the Internet etc..we too are able to do this with some concentration and youtube-watching and a little bit of reading. But then there are all the relatively illiterate people. And there are surprisingly many of those, even between the age of 30 and 50. I mean, most people I know only use the Internet for their Bank, watching movies, Facebooking and reading the newspaper. They never program, they never use wrappers for mac to play games etc, they would never dream of doing something as "crazy" as purchasing crypto currencies. Hell, most people don't even have multiple banks, exchange accounts etc. Most people are just not into this stuff at all.
But at least what the traditional markets are able to is to lower the threshold for regular people to enter the market. And that's a good thing. And I suspect that a lot of "money" is interested in this Bitcoin thing.
The bad
The bad is however that it makes manipulation easier. Ironic isn't it, that once the traditional "regulated" markets (or mafia criminals as i refer to them as) enter, the first thought that pops up in your head is probably MANIPULATION!
And you're thinking like that for a damn good reason. Make no mistake about this. Banks and governments are criminal fraudsters. And I don't want them to touch my precious Bitcoin or crypto. I want them to stay the hell out. And I cringe every time I hear so called "anarchist" rant about how great it will be once Bitcoin is regulated. You sell outs! :)
So these tools for manipulation is of course a concern to me. Will they use their money to shake us all out of Bitcoin? Could they short it to 1000$ or 100$ or to 10$? I seriously doubt that. But I'm sure they are able to stagnate it somewhere like they've probably done with at least Silver, but probably even Gold.
My bet
But even if they are able to do that, I honestly believe we are talking MUCH higher prices before that happens. I think they saw that with the latest spike up to $20,000USD that Bitcoin has the potential of much much higher prices, and why shouldn't they too make some money off of Bitcoin? Sure, they won't make 100,000%, but with big money 100% or 500% is more than enough.
I'm still betting Bitcoin could go as far as the gold market. $500,000. And I must admit, at that price I will probably sell a little bit to buy a new pair of trousers or some kiwi's for my smoothies. And I think it could happen relatively fast. I have NO problems seeing Bitcoin at $20,000 this year. And at least a 100% gain in 2018. Turbulent? Probably.
Another thing that I believe is crucial and an argument against manipulation in the futures market is that they can't hide the massive dislocation in actual Bitcoin and paper Bitcoin for long. It's hard to get physical gold out of a paper gold market, but it is going to be much easier to handle withdrawal mechanisms from a Bitcoin paper market. And a Bitcoin "run" would destroy the futures market and definitely be infinitely bullish for Bitcoin.
Also, Bitcoin is so transparent that an oversell of Bitcoin would be easily proofable and easily corrected because Bitcoin can be traded anywhere and anytime 24/7 without anyone being able to stop it.
Right now, it seems like Bitcoin is reacting relatively bullish in the few hours before it sets off. It broke out of the short term negative trend after hitting support. Good luck everyone. And Hodl!