As if the spot price of bitcoin wasn't volatile enough, in recent weeks so-called cryptocurrency analysts have come out with some truly bizarre, if not ridiculous, predictions where they see the digital currency headed next, and none has been more outspoken, or eager for the spotlight, than former JPM equity strategist, Tom Lee, who now expects the price of one Bitcoin to surge to $125,000 by 2022. If that number seems a little aggressive to everyone else, it would have been a shock to Lee as well just two months ago: after all, his latest forecast is 400% higher than his forecast from October, when he said the top digital token may reach $25,000 over the same period. (it was trading at $11,250 in Thursday).
“While returns should be strong, we forecast returns to be lower than 2017,” wrote Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, in a report. “We expect Bitcoin’s major low to be $9,000 and would be aggressive buyers around that level.”
Maybe he's on to something: bitcoin did drop to $9,000 during its latest swoon swoon just two days ago, and has since rebounded as much as 25%. Among Lee's other forecasts: Ethereum will hit $1,900 by the end of 2018, Ethereum Classic will rise to $60, and NEO will rally to $225.
Yet while one can debate the fate of cryptos - which have no intrinsic value yet, and are merely worth what someone else will pay for them - with Lee and others until blue in the face, the reason why all of the above numbers are meaningless is that they are merely an extrapolation of recent upward momentum: and with no downside to a wrong prediction - as this Bloomberg report confirms - bombastic forecasts quickly lead to prominent media coverage.
Meanwhile, with no "skin in the game" to quote Nassim Taleb, Lee as other crypto "analysts", will keep throwing out even more absurd price predictions which mean more free advertising, more paid subscribers, and a bigger bank account until it all ends with a thud.
So does that mean that there is no credible price forecast for bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin or any of the other cryptos?
Well, if by credible one means putting money where one's mouth is, there is an alternative, because as of this moment, the BetDSI Sportsbook is offering prop odds on the future of the main crypto coins.
Oddsmakers at BetDSI.eu expect Bitcoin’s end-of-year value to be around $19,000 while Ethereum rises to $1,650. They do not anticipate Ripple being added to the Coinbase exchange this year and they do expect various governments to enact law regulating the crypto market.
So to all those who are afraid of trading bitcoin or its futures for whatever reason, here is a way to trade "digital" prop bets on where the cryptocurrencies will be at the end of the year.
Bitcoin value on January 1, 2019 at 12 p.m. ET (according to CoinMarketCap.com)
Over $19,000
Under $19,000
Bitcoin Cash value on January 1, 2019 at 12 p.m. ET (according to CoinMarketCap.com)
Over $2,700
Under $2,700
Ethereum value on January 1, 2019 at 12 p.m. ET (according to CoinMarketCap.com)
Over $1,650
Under $1,650
Ripple value on January 1, 2019 at 12 p.m. ET (according to CoinMarketCap.com)
Over $2.50
Under $2.50
Will Bitcoin value drop below $5,000 in 2018?
Yes +100
No -130
Will Coinbase add Ripple to its exchange before January 1, 2019 at 12 p.m. ET
Yes +105
No -145
Will Coinbase add Ripple to its exchange before January 1, 2020 at 12 p.m. ET
Yes -105
No -135
Will South Korea government pass law to regulate cryptocurrency in 2018?
Yes -140
No +105
Will Japan government pass law to regulate cryptocurrency in 2018?
Yes -130
No +100
Will the United States government pass law to regulate cryptocurrency in 2018?
Yes -120
No -115
And so the skeptics finally have a market where they can profit from bitcoin's volatility - and downside - without getting crushed in case of another Volkswagenesque short squeeze. As for the bulls, they are probably waiting for 2x, 3x and more x levered bets on all of the above.