Bitcoin - What Goes Up Must Come Down - At Least Short Term
I have been warning of a hard pull back and that it's needed to make the Bitcoin Market healthy for a good move up in the 5th wave of an Elliot Wave move.
Once again we find ourselves in a short term bear market. There was the possibility of a trade on the upside before today, but I knew it was high risk as in this type of move Bitcoin typically turns on a dime and drops a thousand dollars in a few hours. Most of my following is not prepared to trade in these conditions and I don't want to lure them there. I did point out some support/resistance lines that experienced traders could use in this situation if they desired to do so. An experienced trader would examine my chart and if he chose to, he would set up a trade with a sell order near the top of the expected move, and then babysit the market watching waiting for his shot. Most people don't have that type of experience or time, most of us like to sleep at night or take a day at the beach.
Chart Analysis
BTC has decisively cut through the 9 period MA (thin blue line) and the upward trend line (dashed light blue line) we have been riding. This dotted blue line represented an ascending price level that when violated signals the end of the now past short term bull run.
Possible support levels from which the current downtrend can reverse
8946 - not a strong resistance line
8340 - Is a possible 4th wave completion and support/resistance shown with a thin gray drawn line upward marked with a ?
Notice the still ascending 50 period MA currently at about 8672 on the chart, when the candles violate and close below this line I will view it as a confirmation that the short term bear move or leg down to the 4th wave on the Elliot Pattern is almost assured of going below 8340 and down to the next range.
Most likely, the next leg up will begin in the zone between 7644 and 7829. Also, take notice of the 200 period MA (in yellow) that is currently moving along in this zone, it's something to keep in mind when looking for a possible bottom.
As always please keep +/- 10% of these prices in mind there is no way to be exact.
I've been taking profits from some of my trading in BTC, ADA and XVG today as the market turned and parking the funds in TUSD to accumulate funds for the next leg up in the 5 leg of the Elliot Wave which should reach 11600. This run should start in May and reach 11600 in fairly short order were a strong resistance is expected. As always I am speaking of my trading funds, the rest of my investments (80% - 90%) in crypto (including the just mentioned coins) are mostly at a healthy profit and are long term holds.
Develop a plan and sleep at night, stay off the trigger finger. Too much time watching short term price action will lead to panic and rash decisions that cost you money. This I know from experience, expensive experience. The secret is to live, learn and prosper for the next profitable trade. Every trader has to pay his dues, just be sure that your dues don't break your bank before you learn how to play the game.
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All statements and expressions I offer are my opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Information provided is not personal investment advice. Seek guidance from a professional investment advisor before trading or investing. Trading cryptocurrencies can be a potentially profitable opportunity for investors. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. I am not a registered investment advisor.
Wishing you success,
Isaac
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