I'm going to do something you should never do. Predict the bottom of the market.
I have pondered the current "Bitcoin crash" for days, wondering when the bottom of the market is. It's hard to see the end isn't it? What will cause the market to change from it's current nosedive?
I have written about it several times today on my blog so you may want to check out my mad reasoning there.
To be honest, I think we are at the bottom of the market now. And are wandering around on a solid floor with nowhere further to fall. I also think that the $400B ( or close to it ) market cap is the "invisible line" that the market just can't cross.
The reason I say can't is because the current adoption rate and actual industrial use of the blockchain is priced somewhere in that vicinity. Somewhere near that figure.
If the current crash were the result of a major hack of the blockchain itself and the tech proved to be highly flawed, then a crash would be warranted. If the blockchains major selling point of a distributed ledger proved to be baloney, then you would expect a mass exodus from the market.
That would warrant a sell off. But the current crash is not based on some massive calamity. It's based on speculation and news reports.
While the news media is busy gloating about the fact that Bitcoin is plummeting in price, they fail to factor for the value that the blockchain has already added to industry. Let alone what it will add in future.
So a "zero dollar" value for Bitcoin is absurd given the application of the tech so far. That's like saying that Apple stocks could fall to zero when the company is still running.
No, sports fans, hold onto your hats. I think we are in for a big surprise. Here are more of my career-ending predictions about the current crash.
- The "bottom" of the market for Bitcoin is between $350 & $400B USD. No lower. Industrial use & reality won't let it fall further.
- When everyone figures out that their precccccious coins can't go to zero, then there will be a massive swell of confidence. And a massive buy up.
- Prices will spike, overnight. Expect to see your coins 150% in the day, so don't wait too long to buy them.
- Ethereum will hit an all time high, +20%. Not explaining why. It just will.
- The news media will be shocked at the market bounce back. Egg will be on many a pundits face.
- Bitcoin and the market cap will inflate to a new all time high +10% soon after this crash. The crash and resurrection will only draw in more investment money. Further swelling the market.
- Sentiment will be that "bitcoin is resilient money". I.e. A crash and bad press can't even kill it.
As mentioned, my theory of a $400B floor may be out a little in price, but the basic premise is sound. Reality will keep the coin market afloat. No matter how much downward speculation is thrown at it.
While the coin markets may continue to fall, I am willing to going "all in" on my hunch. Chips on the table.
Quite frankly, I don't second guess my own leadership and am quite willing to fail following my own lead. As I don't see anyone else in the crypto space putting forward plausible scenarios for the bottom of the market, I will make up my own. Let's see how I do.
Thanks for watching,
Brendan Rohan - Indie developer of 'next gen' natural medicine from Melbourne, Australia
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DISCLAIMER: This article is written by an amateur investor and is offered purely for information purposes. This is not financial advice and you should always seek the advice of a finance professional.