As I analyze my chart and concur chart signs with price, time, and news, I must conclude that Bitcoin has the most probable chance to break out and UP by Sunday.
Here's my case:
- BIP 91 lock-in. We got 80.5% this morning. See https://www.xbt.eu/
- Two more days until activation. This puts us at Friday. Markets move to the far East around this timeframe.
- Symmetrical pattern (also known as Coil) forming with descending volume and a bullish spinning top Doji (so far) on the daily. Generally, when breaking out of these triangles, we follow the long-term trend.
- We want to test our support again, the upward sloping RED trendline currently below us. If done, we'd experience nice bounce momentum to push us through our overhead resistance points at around $2344 (78.6% Fib retracement), $2420 (huge past support/resistance), and our Middle Bollinger and top of our channel, wherever those end up being.
However, CAUTION is to be exercised. There is a ton of resistance overhead and a chance we could still break down through our RED trendline support and back into negative territory.
REMEMBER, we are still in our bearish channel so these predictions are really a bit premature. At the same time, I don't want the higher risk traders to miss out on good buying opportunity here. Dollar cost average yourself in. I usually start at 20%. Up or down, keep adding in.
If we break UP we may go all the way up to the GREEN trendline and test.
If we do go down we WILL go all the way back down to $1845 but probably not lower, unless something disastrous occurs news-wise.
Happy trading friends and remember that buying here is not advice. It is a high risk trade. Your best bet is actually to wait until the breakout is confirmed. You'd have to get in at a higher price but it is a much lower risk trade and direction will be confirmed.
P.S.- I've been asked in several PM's when I'd buy in. Personally, safest bet is anywhere above $2420. I'd hold this all the way up to the bottom of our green channel and re-analyze once we get there.
However, an even safer bet would be to buy LTC instead. LTC will usually follow it's leader BTC. You may not profit as quickly but you have far less to worry about with all of these changes playing out.