Interesting read! I agree that the bearishness will carry into Q4, but I do wonder if we'll see things turn up before the end of Q4. Not that I follow calendar month cycles too closely, but historically bitcoin has had some major runs in Oct/Nov/Dec.

I'm anticipating an intermediate wave bottom soon. I don't have an exact date for that, and it definitely could stretch out farther than my initial expectations, but I was thinking we might see it by mid/end of Oct.

Your fundamental reasoning definitely seems sound though :)