First off, I just want to say:
1 - I am not saying this is going to happen
2 - I would rather we have a bull run now so that we can all enjoy a good, bull market again and make some serious money
3 - Technical analysis is used to locate logical areas where price can react. That reaction can be a 0.5% or a complete trend reversal. It is not a 100% definite, but can give us confirmations of price action
With that in mind, let's take a close look at the BTCUSD daily chart:
You can see I've marked 2 big weekly resistance lines (i.e. they appear on the weekly timeframe, therefore have more significance).
As well as this, the top line was marked because it engulfed a previous spike indicating again, that it holds more significance than the previous spike. As you can see further down the line at the top level, that resistance line was respected almost perfectly twice, before we started heading south.
Now let's look at the 4H chart.
There are 3 significant things to look at here.
1 - the perfect bounce from that weekly resistance line
2 - the perfect bounce from the bottom of the interim support level which got everyone excited the first time
3 - the bounce from the top of the demand level
Now, let's look at something else quite important.
Again, we can see the important weekly SR lines and supply zones adding extra weight to their significance.
At the previous supply zone, we have gone into it twice and been rejected both times, with the second touch the bigger drop.
At the current supply zone we're coming up to, we COULD see the same thing. It has rejected once already, and it would take a big push to get through it. Once we see this first zone broken through, I'll begin to feel a bit more positive about the direction the market is going in.
The bigger the resistance in terms of the timeframe, the more likely we are to have a big reaction, as evidenced in history. For more evidence, we can see another weekly resistance that rejected price on 6 January.
So, to repeat, I am NOT saying this is 100% going to happen, but logical analysis on the chart history and the need for more bullish signals has got me waiting a bit longer before I celebrate a bull market again.
I've seen on social media in 3 different places on the chart already the same excitement.
If we clear that weekly resistance and supply at ~$11900 - ~$12200, then I'll be injecting some significant cash into the market myself, otherwise I will wait for us to go lower if we are rejected at this zone. My prediction is that when we do eventually clear that top level, it will act as the support to push as to a new ATH.
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