So, not much to update you guys with currently. We're still pretty bearish on all lower time frames, and the indicators aren't showing much different.
However, what I want to talk about today so you guys can understand my strategy, is where we currently are in the Elliott wave cycle, and how I figure out where in the cycle we are, which makes finding breakouts relatively easy and risk free!
So if I look at the chart today, I can see that seem to be in our final C wave correction, which would mean that when we can figure out where the 'bottom' is, we can enter a position and ride it up!
But I could be wrong, I personally haven't seen any signals to suggest this wave is done. I work this out by following the basic principles of Elliott wave corrections -
- Waves A and C are impulsive
- Wave B is corrective and should retrace more than 61.8%* of A
- Wave C must fall beyond the end of Wave A
- Wave C is normally at least the same length of A
This is called a zig zag correction (each impulse wave will have 5 subwaves and each corrective wave will have 3 corrective sub waves, which makes it look like a zig zag haha)
So why is this important here?
Well, if you look at the principles, we haven't gone beyond A with wave C, so we either haven't finished corrective wave A, or we still need to drop a little before a bounce (at least below where A finishes).
C is nowhere near the length of A the way I have drawn it, meaning that we could be talking about more retracement, more bearish movement, and perhaps we might even toy with 9,5k or even under 9k.
Lastly, if we look at the retracement of B, we barely get to the .50 mark, and normally I want it to hit between the 0.5 and the 0.618 region, meaning a 50-61.8% retracement.
With all that said, we now understand how we project, and how we figure out which way BTC is going. My current thoughts are we'll at least head down for 9,5k and see if it provides support (red line with the arrow). We could see a double bottom here if so, which could be the end of the C wave (remember it could be the end of A wave too, but we'll still get a good bounce).
My most bearish scenario is that wave C will retrace to around 5k, as that's equidistance to wave A, but that is with the assumption we are in the C wave, and are not just finishing out A corrective wave. Personally, I don't see this unless the institutional money are playing serious games, which is likely as futures contracts expire this week.
You never know, and we will never be able to predict the future, however we can base our decisions on this research and analysis and we can always be confident in our trades.
Hope that helped today guys. Follow me if you don't already as I would really like to get more involved in the Steemit community!
Peace.
- B
- Here's my post explaining fibonacci numbers a little - https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@traincrypto/how-to-use-the-fibonacci-retracement-tool-to-make-better-trades