As you can see from my daily chart, we're contending with the .786 region. It seems to be holding as support well, but we need the daily candle to close above it to confirm it as support. Wicks poking through is cool IMO.
I've validating my wave counts, and it seems like we are yet to finish our final 5th impulsive wave down.
Check out the chart below so you can see what I mean. It is my opinion that we are still in our 4th wave, which , meaning we will need to see an ABC, which I can't see quite see just yet. I see the AB, but we're going to have to hold out for a C wave (subwave of wave 4) before we even think about heading down to challenge our support at my line below, which means $8k is going to be a crucial support again.
If my count is incorrect, and we are still on our wave 3 impulse wave down, we could be heading even further down before a reversal.
Overall thoughts are still bearish in the shorter term.
I hope this gives you an idea of how I make my trades. If I can't validate the trend, i.e confirming the Elliott wave count, I will not trade anything until I'm confident in what way the price action will go.
For BTC here, my red box is where I think we'll hit if I'm correct with my current scenario, but I also fully agree with the theory that we're still on our wave 3, which is a more bearish signal IMO, and is a scenario where we could test $5k, which is probably unlikely if we bounce at $8k again.
I'm being patient to see how support holds up before making any trades on BTC.
What am I looking at currently?
I'm currently watching the 4H candle close, looks like a doji (still 2 hours to go haha), but could also be a hammer candle.
If we can close with a higher high in the next 4H candle, I suspect we're heading up to the resistance at $9.5k in the next couple of days which is going to be huge if we break through, however I feel it's unlikely unless we get shit tons more volume.
If we close below, setting a lower low, we'll come down just as expected. This is my most likely scenario. Follow my Elliott waves on the chart and if I have the count correct, which I'm confident of as all the principles of Elliott wave have been met, you can get a general direction of the price action.
Hope this helps, or confirms what you were already thinking. I'll update when things start to change.
Peace.
-B