Everyone seems to be happy with coming BTC futures, but are futures really something that good that can happen to BTC. I will try to list some of the pros and cons facts.
PROS
- BTC becomes classified as an asset
- more likely to be regulated than banned once futures are permitted
- could open the door to the big players who will buy actual asset to hedge the futures short positions (some kind of arbitrage on own futures positions by controlling the actual asset)
- adoption and publicity, bitcoin finds a way to the mass media
CONS
- futures will be just a cash speculation (bets) about the future price of BTC, means that there is no need to actually own BTC to get into the game.
- futures are regulated, more secure and without tech. limitations.
- If someone needs to buy 10000 BTC has already a logistical problem. With futures there will be no problem with bigger amounts, cos they are cash contracts.
- big players might sell positions in actual asset switching to derivatives market, for the reasons mentioned above.
- if the pessimistic expectations in futures market will prevail over optimistic long positions, enormous amounts of money will be placed to short positions, which will represent a high psychological pressure to the price in the actual asset. And when people start to panic, they take irrational decisions.
So all in all, with traditional assets the manipulation is possible, big whales have a tool to arbitrage their assets trough derivatives. It is how the World became 1% vs 99% because of unfair game they play. Can this model be totally copied into crypto market? Not so sure about that. Probably the paradigm HOLD and limited supply together with rebellious behaviour of small people vs. elites can bring a new momentum into World's economy. Time will tell.
Let me know your thoughts about it. Do you really think that futures in BTC are more positive than negative thing? Do you really think that shorting BTC troughs futures will be too risky for whales and Crypto WS haters?
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Wish you all a good weekend