The holiday shortened week comes to an end as Bitcoin drifts sideways from it’s recent gains. Let’s take a look at what pricing action may be next.
On the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, my targets were pretty close that I was looking at for a price range however, my timing was a bit off. We were tracking this rising wedge on Tuesday where price looked like it was ready to break either way.
I had thought the price might rebound off that lower dark blue line in the channel first and break higher fail and then break lower. The timing was a bit off, but the price targets turned out to work pretty well as price. First price broke down out of the rising wedge formation and then launched higher back through the wedge and tested the upper resistance line at $6,785 before coming back down.
Since then price has been moving sideways, oscillating around the 55 EMA orange line and 100 MA purple line. I have drawn a blue rectangle that has contained price in a $200 range pretty well since the breakdown on Tuesday between $6,640 and $6,440. If price can get a close above or below these levels you can expect a move in the same direction about equal the width of rectangle.
You will also notice the big head and shoulders top that could be forming here as well. If that neck line gets broken around the same range as the rectangle at $6,430, I think a revisit to the .5 fib line at $6,284 is likely.
The 200 hour moving average might put up a bit of support around $6,400 but I think the bears would take over the trend at that point and we could see this downward move sometime Saturday night or Sunday. My target from Tuesday was at $6,190, so we will see if price can hit that level.
If price does manage to break to the upside, I think we could see more highs if price can get a close above $6,720, where the body of the last highest candle close is.
All the indicators are pretty neutral for the most part, but the MACD histogram is beginning to tick downward and could be signaling more weakness. Additionally the MACD has formed a downward wedge between the pink lines, which I have added as a separate snapshot, so you can see it closer. Maybe price drifts down to that -25 lower pink support line and than bullishly breaks upward in price.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, the reverse head and shoulder bottom is still in play if the hourly chart patterns plays out.
The low the could easily be Monday July 9th where that red target is around $6,165 and then a springboard move back up to that $7,030 where blue 50 day MA and orange 55 day EMA could reside. Price could easily blow through that level too in an effort to test $7,500 again and then we would just have to see what happens next.
If price does move down to $6,100 and is showing a lack of volume, we will look closer at the bearish scenario on Monday, but I would anticipate some big wicks that show a reversal.
The RSI still looks good showing that strong bullish reversal divergence underlined by the pink line and I can that see that line acting as support around 35 if price does breakdown.
I can also even see a potential reverse head and shoulders pattern on the MACD lines that I outlined and included an additional snapshot to look at closer. Since the MACD is a lagging a indicator it may take little bit longer to play out compared to price, however it is a possibly and an encouraging sign for the bulls. I’ll leave it there for now. Have a good weekend!
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