On the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, we have watched price bounce over the weekend off of the dark blue up-trending support line marked around $6,525 all the way up to the high of $6,840. Price has now retraced back to the previous peak at $6,700 where it’s finding good support for the last 10 hours.
I don’t expect this consolidation to last much longer on the hourly chart as price is now encroaching on that dark blue up-trending line again. Price is also still finding good support around the orange 55 EMA line. There are three wicks dipping beneath that level that the bulls are defending well, but they are not going on the offensive to drive price up either.
I think that the reaction to this dark blue trend line will be telling in the short-term. If price moves up with the trend line it’s likely that the $6,763 level at the black horizontal resistance line will be tested again. The bears have deemed that level a no go zone area for now, where there are quite a few candle wicks testing that level.
The market will have made a decision by tomorrow at this time and this kind of ascending triangle between the blue and black lines will be broken. The good news for the bulls is that all of the moving averages are currently stacked bullishly and even if the orange 55 EMA is broken the purple 100 and black 200 lines, should provide some support before breaking down even further.
The RSI is neutral at 48.71 and is waiting for a move either direction and the MACD is approaching that zero bound bearishly, but also looks pretty indecisive. I have also added the AO Awesome Oscillator indicator today and you can see how that has had a bullish tick over the past hour, and has been trending upward with that blue line. The bullish momentum is fairly weak right now, so like many of these other big green candles, we need to watch closely for sudden increases in volume momentum.
On the bullish side, I think my target from last week around $7,040 still stands, but I thought it would may have played out a little differently, so I have moved the target forward in time by a few days. On the bearish side, that target of $6,600 looks good around the black 200 hour moving average line.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, I have created an up-trending pitchfork with the pivot from the low on June 24th, the swing high from June 25th, and then the swing low from June 29th.
The pitchfork works pretty well with the pricing action so far especially on the lower time frame, but you can see price drifting into the purple channel, where it should bounce off the bottom side of that channel which also coincides with the blue trend-line.
If price does bounce here, that green target around $7,040 is a strong possibility and also coincides nicely with where that orange 55 day EMA will be.
The RSI here is also fairly neutral at 52.91 and the bullish divergence marked by the pink line is still there. The MACD also has good bullish momentum and is approaching the zero bound.
Amazingly enough, the AO has breached the zero bound for the first time since May 13th, which I have circled on the chart and could also be indication of a further pop upward.
The reverse head and shoulder bottom that I discussed last week could still be in play, however it may take a different form and will need to be redrawn.
On the bearish side a breakdown to the outer band of the pitchfork in red, could take place at $6,500, but even that area should have decent horizontal support. Overall, I think a bullish move is more likely.
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