Last post I proposed to look at the broader picture of Bitcoin, comparing the current bear market with the '14/'15 one, applying the principle of proportionality. The result wasn't that great, as I concluded that even if the bottom was in way back in June, it would take AT LEAST another 9 months until we'd hit new all-time highs.
Here is the situation of 3 years ago, with a prolonged choppy area, followed by well over a year of grinding up towards hitting $1.3k yet again.
The current situation is yet to unfold, but if the bottom is NOT in yet then what can we expect for the future? Well, this depends on where we'll land. A reasonable target would be based on the height of the current triangle, but price level is pretty irrelevant tbh, what's more important is WHEN we'll bottom.
If we break down tomorrow, there are really slim chances that we bottom in one day. More likely, we should have a nice downward slope, which even if it's abrupt, it still pushes us a few months down the road.
So, if we take very loose – but REASONABLE – estimates, and bottom out somewhere at the cusp of '18/'19, then the road back up to $20k is going to be very long and very tedious.
However, what sounds almost idiotically bearish today, may in hindsight prove out to have been just common sense.
I know, my targets suck, but this is the pessimist-realistic scenario. If you wanna check out my optimistic estimate you're welcomed to 😊