For skeptics, last year marked the end of Bitcoin, but in the opinion of some experts (and enthusiasts), a lot of opportunities are emerging
,SÃO PAULO - On December 17, Bitcoin completed a year of its historic maxim, when it reached $ 20,000 in a scenario of unbridled euphoria. Since then, however, the world's leading crypto-currency has already lost more than 80 percent of its value, reaching $ 3,500 on December 17, 2018 and closing the year at $ 3,700.
But what happened? Was the bubble bursting or just a "natural" correction movement in a market still in formation?For the skeptics, last year marked the end of Bitcoin, but in the opinion of some experts (and enthusiasts), opportunities are emerging at a time when the crypto-currency market is more mature and ready to face crises.
An important point is to understand the scenario at the time the currency soared. Since the beginning of 2017, Bitcoin has gradually gained space in the news and many people have discovered the crypto-coins as the "future of the global economy", thinking that it would be a revolution in the short term.As more people went in, the more the price rose, reaching its peak in the last quarter of 2017. According to Fernando Ulrich, chief analyst of the XDEX crypto currency exchange, it was clear at the time that a correction was coming and he warned investors.
"For those who have entered into euphoria, in that herd effect, a correction is very bad, of course. But this illustrates what I always say: study and know where you are coming in and see it as any other investment. what he's doing, "explains Ulrich.
2018: the end of Bitcoin?
The first day of 2018 already showed how much the $ 20,000 level was unsustainable at the time, with Bitcoin opening the year at $ 13,500. And as the price receded, all those people who thought the Cryptomanic would rise to unimaginable levels began to come out, completely reversing the movement.
Last year was marked by expectations regarding the use and regulation of crypto-coins in the "real world". The technology continues to evolve, but what we saw was a lot of waiting for regulatory decisions around the world, which "stuck" prices for many months. However, with the lack of news that could justify new registrations, a new wave of sales has come in the last two months, again pulling Bitcoin down.
More than fundamentals, the investor sentiment has been the most important for the definition of the price. Economist Richard Rytenband explains that the euphoric wave of the end of 2017 put the level of fragility at very high levels, that is, any small deterioration in the ecosystem would have a very negative impact on prices.
Between December 2017 and January 2018 the first correction took place, but it was still possible to see many lively people waiting for a resumption of the bull market. This is clear in the January price recovery movement, when Bitcoin returned to $ 17,000.
"But as a result of the year, the bear market became clearer to everyone. Thus, we entered, from January to August, the second stage of the bear market, called recognition, characterized by dismay and disinterest in the market," he explains. Richard.Then the market entered the last stage, called capitulation, in which investors who remained optimistic throughout the bear market begin to throw in the towel. The economist explains that in November, this stage entered the most acute phase, and there was a wave of panic in the market.
Contrary to what skeptics argue, however, this fall does not mean the end of Bitcoin. Instead. For these experts, panic may even be healthy, as it takes people out of the market who do not know what they're investing in. The price may be depreciated, but now it's easier for the cryptomaniac to find a fairer price. The range of change, according to analysts, ranges from US $ 3,000 to US $ 20,000 (at least for the time being) - which indicates how volatile this asset is.
2019: the time of recovery?
Experts believe that, after all the devaluation, this is a good time to invest in crypto-coins. "As the Warren Buffett would say, if you're buying an asset just because it's rising, then you're going to have to be careful," he said. is buying for the wrong reason, "says Ulrich.
It is worth remembering that Buffett criticized the investment in crypto-coins, saying that it was a game, not a healthy way to apply it.
In the opinion of the expert Safiri Félix, the current price is quite depreciated against the fundamentals of technology, but, on the other hand, the market is healthier than when it reached the $ 20 thousand. "The fundamentals are set aside when this negative feeling is great," he says.
For him, the recovery tends to be very slow, but more consistent, with a projection for medium and long term positive. "The next cycle is at least a year and a half and goes from now to halving, scheduled for May 2020," he explains, citing the event already planned at Bitcoin where the reward of miners in creating new currencies is cut by half.
"In this period the market will have to find a price equilibrium, to become profitable for operators and miners, and adoption has to move forward, this will have a stronger role in the recovery," justifies the expert.
Finally, Richard cautions against signaling that bitcoin may have reached its lowest levels, a sign that has been in place since November, which creates good opportunities for investors. "We are at a time when any small improvement in the ecosystem will produce a large positive impact on prices," he concludes.
Ulrich points out that this is still a new market and that the high of 2017 was a distortion. But the 80% drop is nothing when we see that Bitcoin, until March 2017, was worth less than $ 1,000. We will hardly see the end of Bitcoin, but it is, at least, early for him to go back to $ 20,000.