Great video, I agree with pretty much everything what you have mentioned there. While I am betting on Bitcoin to be in a bubble with caution, first of all, it is really hard to speculate on this since there is way too less precise measurement tools based on economic indicators to tell it for sure. I like your Bitcoin vs Visa analogy, in the same time, for instance, I analyze network affects of Bitcoin and that analysis tells another story. I also think that although there will be dips and corrections, this bubble is not yet to explode. This time Wall Street will make this real fucking big and will blow up it together with the stock market and other bubbles Western economies are in at the moment. That's what they need to become even richer, they are the only ones who benefit in a long-run of the way our economies are set up. It feels like we are sort of in the end of 2006 when it was clear that doesn't make any sense anymore, but the party was only around midnight at that point and the strong liquor was yet to be served for real. Anyways, I think it is always smart to hedge your positions, especially, at this point if you have been involved in the game just lately. I bought in when BTC was at $200 and since I really like the idea and even more so the dev team, but I'm not a particular fan of Lambos, luxury goods or any of that stuff, so I'm not going to sell my initial investment even if BTC crashes like 90%. But that's just me, and every person has it's own circumstances and risk tolerance and Iagree with you that it is foolish to fall for euphoria. I almost did that with mining and ASICs at the end of summer when only my deeper analysis revealed me how I'm going to take unnecesary amounts of risk without strong upside. So, I share your view, I just think that it is impossible to call the market tops. It could easily be $20k, $50k, $80k or even more. Diversification and hedging is the key, as you have pointed out many times before.

What I'm more than confident about is that ICOs are most definitely in the bubble because you can measure it way easier since these are essentially companies with CEO, promises, future plans, cashflows (well, maybe not yet), futire income streams etc. And there is almost nothing of it for 95%+ of those projects. It will go on for some time, but eventually the reality kicks in and people will lose shitloads of money.2 main reasons: 1) ICOs are set up to make money 2) with very rare exemptions those projects don't need their own token since it doesn't create any utility and adds unnecessary layer of friction. It's just failure waiting to happen. Sure, there will be some successful projects that will come out with actual business that solves actual real-world problems, but like at least 95% of them will just go to zero. Anyway, let them party and lose if they are too stupid and too lazy to do their research and due diligence. Not to say that I have researched every project out there, but from those ERC20 token projects I have researched and followed, OMG is probably the only one I would put my trust into, and even then I'm hedging that position since most likely they won't be able to deliver on their roadmap as expected. Those projects are heavily reliant on Ethereum updates, and those don't seem to come along as well and even more importantly- as fast as initially expected. I like OMG team though and since I lay my trust in people first, and only then in idea, I will keep a position in OMG, but it will be just 30% of what it used to be. That's my take on this. In this regard I have a question for you. It might not be highly likely scenario, but still- let's say the ICO bubble burst before Bitcoin bubble (assuming it is in a bubble) and before stock market bubble. ICOs fall on their own. In this scenario- what is your take what happens to the price of Bitcoin? I mean, I can argue for it to go both ways, would like to hear your take on this.

Speaking of Ethereum- I used to be very bullish on it but at this point I am slowly becomimg more cautious because of one important reservation I'm having (although I have a relative big position on ETH since I expect for the price to rise in a short to mid term). And that is Solidity, which seems to be pretty much the wrong choice for what Ethereum is supposed to be and supposed to do. Sure, at this point they cannot change this even if they would like to, so they need to figure things out as they are, but my big reservation is what it will continue to cause problems just due to the nature of this code/language, and that can't really be avoided in any certain way. It's sort of similar as Windows and some of the issues they are having for the last 20 years and those cannot be fixed in any easy way since they are part of the very base of how Windows is set up and what it's logic is. That is my one big reservation with Ethereum in a long run and would like to hear your thoughts on this as you might have different view on this and maybe you can point out to some things I'm missing here in this regard.

Speaking of other top10 coins, I pretty much think that everything is in a bubble there. I'm positive on what Monero team is doing and the way how they have handled the issues throughout the year, so again I lay my trust in the dev team not just in the idea and I'm actually continue to slowly accumulate more Monero even at this price. Sure, IOTA has tremendous upside, but it is essentially yet in Beta mode, so huge upside comes with huge risk. Cardano looks really solid, but to invest at it at this stage seems a bit ridiculous. Although their team seems solid, idea is great, it is all pretty much on the paper as for now. I want to see more proof in a long term and what they can deliver. Charles is a brilliant mind, but he has a track record of running away from problems and starting the next big thing whenever something goes wrong. I'm optimistic but cautious at the same time. Litecoin serves a clear purpose, and that is to be a test network/ground for Bitcoin. Which is not a bad thing since it has a clear purpose that most of the projects are missing. Just I wouldn't overestimate it and that Gold/Silver analogy.. well, let's say I just don't buy it at all. Ripple is on its own realm and kinda difficult to compare it to other projects. At least, it serves a clear purpose and has a track-record even if you are not particular fan of the idea behind it. I don't invest in Ripple cause I have no interest to follow on what is going on in their community and with the tech improvements, but I don't necessarily bash it either. It serves a purpose, well, it is supposed to serve in the future, to be more precise. How many of those coins/tokens serves a purpose!? I can't comment on NEM since I don't fully grasp that project and haven't done my homework, but as far as the rest of the projects go, as far as I'm concerned BCash is doomed to fail, and for me it is not a question of if but rather when. Not saying you can't make money in a short term with trading it, but in a long run I believe it just doesn't stand much of a a chance. Dash has some major flaws and I'm a bit surprised that the market doesn't see those. I have done my homework on this one quite a long time ago and still I don't see much of the long-term potential, so I definitely see it as overbought, even more so than most of the other coins in top10-top15. BGold is not even worth to mention with its artificial imflated market cap and low development activity. EOS and Qtum- well, since I said that I lay my trust in people first and only then into the idea itself- I can't say that it is a good investment. Very risky IMHO. Depends of your risk tolerance. Stellar is interesting though. NEO- I definitely wouldn't buy it at this point.

Just to point out- I'm no expert by any means. I'm just an enthusiast of the technology, it's future applications and its potential. To some degree I have been involved in the space since the 2013 But I pretty much agree with you on the timeframe for all of this. My interest in trading comes only after all of this, although I take part in the market, analyze situations, constantly educate myself, and try to keep in mind that I might be totally off with my predictions and analasys since under no circumstances you have a full-information, besides market conditions constantly changes, so should your view.

Appreciate your content and I feel that we share a similar view on a lot of things that is going on the space.