This is a repost of a note to my subscribers on October 28, as I believe a bottom 'of sorts' is close in the crypto market, but this may or may not mean that the bear market is over.
Just a friendly reminder and because we have a few new folks....
The purpose here is just to so you are clear about how I lean as an analyst, as we are likely close to a key turn in the market.
As we head into a season where a 'tradeable' bottom comes into play, I want to remind that when I call a long trade setup, it is not the same as saying the bottom is in. The most probable bear end comes to a bear market when you retrace the peak to trough of a correction by .618 in a VERY CLEAN five up. That's $12,370, but I'll be very long with controlled risk long before that ($7095 again is my level). I even put healthy doubt on such a bottom but this is still called in EW a high probability bottom, and more so when support underneath such a fractal holds. I will size up on long leverage when that occurs. Position sizing sometimes is more important than direction.
A trade setup means there is reasonable/controlled risk for a potential trade with far greater reward. It doesn't mean the bear market is over. I'm just dry and matter of fact about that because I don't want to participate in sentiment myself. Support is support and resistance is resistance, and how the market interplays with the zones, slowly unveils its intent. While I may say 'I like the chances of a bottom in' or 'high probability the bear market is over', I do not ring a bell, just as when we said in December something like '19K is a great area of risk, and as you know I said I was selling 25% of my portfolio (wish I sold more). I didn't know it was the top of this magnitude until we broke into the Feb. low, and I even watched the Feb. low for signs of an impulse, and it also failed. I also at the time, said $4600 was 'ideal' major support with $3000 the crap hits the fan level. (recorded at the Trader Expo in Feb or at least was i my powerpoint), but I didn't know for sure in Feb. that the market was already headed there.
I watch every setup. That's just my way. I like to catch trades, and Feb. was very tradeable bottom. April was a very tradeable bottom, and hopefully some of you profited as Zac and I also said the the May top was a good place to take profit,. And we're coming close to another. Don't bet the farm, as we may still have more bear to go, but take reasonable risk that you can manage. If you are following my counts and don't know where a setup invalidates, please ask.
Link to original post:
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/cryptocurrency/A-Setup-is-JUST-a-Setup-201810274959542.html